SQLite Web: event

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{"aggregator_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indicator-has-called-every-recession-over-last-80-years-heres-what-its-saying-now","as_of":"2026-04-14T10:11:17.846354+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/14/this-indicator-has-called-every-recession-over-the/","enrichment":{"aggregator_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indicator-has-called-every-recession-over-last-80-years-heres-what-its-saying-now","article_chars":5000,"article_truncated":true,"blocked_reason":null,"candidate_id":"sc_8c11c4ebb6ea4269","canonical_host":"fool.com","canonical_is_aggregator":false,"canonical_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/14/this-indicator-has-called-every-recession-over-the/","content_type":"text/html; charset=utf-8","enriched_at":"2026-04-14T10:14:12.013879+00:00","extraction_method":"trafilatura","fetched_description":"Key PointsThe Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has been 100% accurate in indicating recessions since 1945 with no false alarms.","fetched_title":"This Indicator Has Called Every Recession Over the Last 80 Years. Here's What It's Saying Now. | Nasdaq","final_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indicator-has-called-every-recession-over-last-80-years-heres-what-its-saying-now","html_truncated":false,"paywall_likely":false,"publisher_domain":"fool.com","publisher_resolution":"canonical_url","requested_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indicator-has-called-every-recession-over-last-80-years-heres-what-its-saying-now","source_event_id":"evt_3bbea58240b6","source_quality":"high","status_code":200,"version":"signal_enrichment_v2"},"fp":"af2f3a7fcb41d4ae","kind":"unusual_volume","published_at":"2026-04-14T09:04:00+00:00","publisher_domain":"fool.com","signal_understanding":{"analysis_basis":"article","claim_confidence":0.74,"dates_mentioned":["March","February","April 2025","April"],"entities":[{"asset_class":"equity","name":"Moody's Analytics","relevance":"high","symbol":"MCO","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"person","name":"Mark Zandi","relevance":"high","symbol":"","type":"person"},{"asset_class":"person","name":"Claudia Sahm","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"person"},{"asset_class":"macro_institution","name":"National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"equity","name":"Walmart","relevance":"medium","symbol":"WMT","type":"company"},{"asset_class":"equity","name":"AbbVie","relevance":"medium","symbol":"ABBV","type":"company"},{"asset_class":"equity","name":"American States Water","relevance":"medium","symbol":"AWR","type":"company"},{"asset_class":"equity","name":"Goldman Sachs","relevance":"low","symbol":"GS","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"organization","name":"EY-Parthenon","relevance":"low","symbol":"","type":"organization"}],"event_type":"macro_policy","information_gaps":["This signal type is \u201cdiscovery_unusual_volume_delta,\u201d but the provided text contains no unusual volume ratio, baseline volume, or ticker-specific volume data.","No explicit volume ratio vs average is stated anywhere in the provided article text.","The article does not provide a specific catalyst tied to a particular stock\u2019s trading volume; it discusses macro labor-market conditions and recession probability instead."],"key_facts":["The VCI is described as having signaled 100% of U.S. recessions since 1945 with no false alarms (as stated in the article).","The VCI is based on the Sahm Rule, which signals early recession when the average unemployment rate over three months rises by 0.5% above its 12-month low.","The article says the VCI adjusts unemployment using a five-year moving average of labor force participation and uses a threshold of more than 1% rise over the previous 12 months.","The article states Moody\u2019s Analytics\u2019 Mark Zandi believes the VCI indicates the U.S. is already in a recession even though the NBER has not officially confirmed one yet.","The article contrasts this with \u201cseemingly robust\u201d March job gains of 178,000 added jobs, while citing a large February decline attributed to brutal winter and a Kaiser Permanente labor strike.","The article claims Zandi argued the U.S. has added only a few jobs since April 2025 and would have had a net loss without healthcare employment.","The article states the labor-force participation rate has fallen to 61.9%.","The article says Moody\u2019s Analytics raised its probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%.","The article suggests investors should not panic and should consider recession-resistant stocks (consumer staples, healthcare, utilities) and increasing cash positions."],"numeric_claims":[{"label":"labor-force participation rate","value":"61.9%"},{"label":"jobs added in March","value":"178,000"},{"label":"Moody\u2019s Analytics recession probability (next 12 months)","value":"48.6%"},{"label":"EY-Parthenon recession chance","value":"40%"},{"label":"Goldman Sachs recession odds","value":"30%"}],"primary_claim":"The Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) is currently indicating the U.S. is in the early stages of a recession, even though the NBER has not officially confirmed one yet.","relevance_score":0.62,"sentiment":"mixed","source_quality":"high","summary":"The article claims Moody\u2019s Analytics\u2019 Vicious Cycle Index (VCI), based on the Sahm Rule, is currently flashing an early-recession warning for the U.S. despite no official NBER recession confirmation yet. It attributes the signal to weakening labor-market conditions (including falling labor-force participation) and suggests investors prepare by favoring recession-resistant stocks and holding more cash.","topics":["recession indicator","Vicious Cycle Index (VCI)","Sahm Rule","labor market weakening","unemployment","labor-force participation","investor positioning"]},"source":"Nasdaq Markets","source_domain":"fool.com","summary":"Key PointsThe Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has been 100% accurate in indicating recessions since 1945 with no false alarms.","tickers":["VCI"],"title":"This Indicator Has Called Every Recession Over the Last 80 Years. Here's What It's Saying Now.","url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/14/this-indicator-has-called-every-recession-over-the/"}

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event_store.db — signals

Update row sig_2a5ae5849aba in signals