SQLite Web: event

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{"aggregator_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-iran-war-cause-recession-heres-what-it-would-take-according-wall-street","as_of":"2026-04-14T20:20:10.540405+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/14/will-the-iran-war-cause-a-recession-heres-what-it/","enrichment":{"aggregator_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-iran-war-cause-recession-heres-what-it-would-take-according-wall-street","article_chars":4363,"article_truncated":false,"blocked_reason":null,"candidate_id":"sc_ed4444ff46e69b29","canonical_host":"fool.com","canonical_is_aggregator":false,"canonical_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/14/will-the-iran-war-cause-a-recession-heres-what-it/","content_type":"text/html; charset=utf-8","enriched_at":"2026-04-15T17:31:23.130929+00:00","extraction_method":"trafilatura","fetched_description":"Key PointsEconomist forecasts are getting more bearish, but most still don't expect a recession.","fetched_title":"Will the Iran War Cause a Recession? Here's What It Would Take, According to Wall Street | Nasdaq","final_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-iran-war-cause-recession-heres-what-it-would-take-according-wall-street","html_truncated":false,"paywall_likely":false,"publisher_domain":"fool.com","publisher_resolution":"canonical_url","requested_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-iran-war-cause-recession-heres-what-it-would-take-according-wall-street","source_event_id":"evt_3677da1c7850","source_quality":"high","status_code":200,"version":"signal_enrichment_v2"},"fp":"4d1a3a53b4e3bb19","kind":"unusual_volume","published_at":"2026-04-14T19:03:49+00:00","publisher_domain":"fool.com","signal_understanding":{"analysis_basis":"article","claim_confidence":0.74,"dates_mentioned":["June 2025","December 17, 2004","April 15, 2005","April 14, 2026"],"entities":[{"asset_class":"equity_index","name":"S&P 500 Index","relevance":"high","symbol":"^GSPC","type":"index"},{"asset_class":"macro","name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF)","relevance":"high","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"macro","name":"Bank of America","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"hedge_fund","name":"Citadel","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"individual","name":"Ken Griffin","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"person"},{"asset_class":"individual","name":"President Trump","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"person"},{"asset_class":"geopolitical","name":"Strait of Hormuz","relevance":"high","symbol":"","type":"geographic/strategic chokepoint"},{"asset_class":"geopolitical","name":"Iran","relevance":"high","symbol":"","type":"country"}],"event_type":"geopolitical_risk","information_gaps":["This signal type is 'discovery_unusual_volume_delta', but the provided text contains no ticker-specific volume ratio, baseline volume, or unusual volume direction/ratio data.","No specific tradable ticker(s) besides the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) are mentioned in connection with volume.","The article discusses market moves and macro forecasts, but does not explicitly confirm any unusual trading volume event in the excerpt.","Catalyst hypothesis for unusual volume cannot be determined from the provided text; only macro/geopolitical catalysts for recession risk are described."],"key_facts":["Stocks surged over the last week and are near all-time highs after a ceasefire agreement and signs President Trump is seeking an off-ramp.","The article states oil prices have come down modestly but remain elevated, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is mostly blocked.","The article says the IMF cut its forecast due to higher energy prices from the war in Iran, calling for 3.1% global GDP growth (down from earlier forecasts of 3.3% and 3.5% for 2025).","The article states the IMF\u2019s adverse scenario would slow growth to 2.5%, and its worst-case model assumes oil averaging $110 a barrel in $125 in 2027, pushing toward a global recession.","The article cites a Bank of America monthly survey showing economists are the most bearish since June 2025, but 70% say a recession is unlikely.","The article cites Ken Griffin saying that if the Strait of Hormuz were closed for six to 12 months, it would cause a recession."],"numeric_claims":[{"label":"IMF global GDP growth forecast","value":"3.1% (year unspecified in excerpt)"},{"label":"IMF earlier forecast (comparison)","value":"3.3% and 3.5% (for 2025, per article)"},{"label":"IMF adverse scenario growth","value":"2.5%"},{"label":"IMF worst-case oil assumption","value":"oil averaging $110 a barrel in $125 in 2027 (as stated)"},{"label":"Bank of America survey recession likelihood","value":"70% calling recession unlikely"}],"primary_claim":"A sustained energy shock from elevated oil prices tied to the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation is the main condition that could lead to a global recession.","relevance_score":0.62,"sentiment":"mixed","source_quality":"high","summary":"The article argues that while economists are becoming more bearish due to elevated Iran-related energy risks, most do not expect a recession. It highlights that recession risk would likely require sustained high oil prices and/or a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.","topics":["Iran conflict","Strait of Hormuz","oil prices","recession risk","IMF GDP forecast","economist survey sentiment","market outlook"]},"source":"Nasdaq Markets","source_domain":"fool.com","summary":"Key PointsEconomist forecasts are getting more bearish, but most still don't expect a recession.","tickers":[],"title":"Will the Iran War Cause a Recession? Here's What It Would Take, According to Wall Street","url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/14/will-the-iran-war-cause-a-recession-heres-what-it/"}

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event_store.db — signals

Update row sig_f7b300048d39 in signals