SQLite Web: event

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{"artifact_id":"art_intel_narrative_nar_c5bbc69a3f661087_f1f8a6073024","evidence_event_ids":["evt_d57e8691cdc1","evt_63550abff9ba","evt_63550abff9ba","evt_63550abff9ba","evt_63550abff9ba","evt_63550abff9ba"],"kind":"intel_narrative","meta":{"confidence":0.65,"domains":["markets","energy","geopolitics"],"last_publish_at":"2026-04-20T18:50:15.451313+00:00","narrative_id":"nar_c5bbc69a3f661087","provenance":{"domain_types":[{"domain":"cnbc.com","type":"independent"},{"domain":"investopedia.com","type":"unknown"},{"domain":"investors.com","type":"unknown"},{"domain":"npr.org","type":"unknown"},{"domain":"stonex.com","type":"social"},{"domain":"wsj.com","type":"independent"}],"domains":["cnbc.com","investopedia.com","investors.com","npr.org","stonex.com","wsj.com"],"independent_confirmations":2,"primary_adjacent":0,"total_sources":6},"state":"live","tick_id":"tick_aea756419acc_1776710977","variant_labels":["risk-off equities, firmer oil","Strait of Hormuz supply shock fears","Iran escalation hits futures","markets reprice Gulf conflict risk"]},"output_json":{"confidence":0.65,"narrative_id":"nar_c5bbc69a3f661087","provenance":{"domain_types":[{"domain":"cnbc.com","type":"independent"},{"domain":"investopedia.com","type":"unknown"},{"domain":"investors.com","type":"unknown"},{"domain":"npr.org","type":"unknown"},{"domain":"stonex.com","type":"social"},{"domain":"wsj.com","type":"independent"}],"domains":["cnbc.com","investopedia.com","investors.com","npr.org","stonex.com","wsj.com"],"independent_confirmations":2,"primary_adjacent":0,"total_sources":6},"second_order_effects":["Higher oil can feed into near-term inflation expectations.","Risk-sensitive equities may remain vulnerable to further escalation headlines.","Energy-linked sectors may outperform relative to the broader market.","Volatility can stay elevated if shipping or military incidents continue.","Policy commentary may shift toward the macro impact of energy disruption risk."],"state":"live","title":"Markets are repricing Gulf conflict risk, but the signal is still headline-driven","uncertainty":"The key uncertainty is whether this is a temporary headline-driven wobble or the start of a more durable reassessment of Gulf supply risk. It is also unclear how much of the move reflects actual expectations of physical disruption versus a broader de-risking response to escalation language and military actions.","variant_labels":["risk-off equities, firmer oil","Strait of Hormuz supply shock fears","Iran escalation hits futures","markets reprice Gulf conflict risk"],"what_to_watch":["Whether oil prices continue to hold gains after the initial headline reaction.","Whether equity weakness broadens beyond a contained risk-off move.","Any evidence of shipping disruption, rerouting, or insurance stress in the Gulf.","Further U.S.-Iran military or diplomatic developments that change the probability of escalation.","Whether additional independent reporting confirms a sustained supply-risk repricing."],"whats_changed":"Compared with the prior state, the market response is now visible across both equities and energy, indicating that the conflict risk is being translated into prices rather than just discussed in headlines. The evidence base is still relatively thin and mostly news-snapshot driven, with only two independent confirmations, so the repricing is real but not yet strongly validated across a wide source set.","whats_happening":"Equities are softening while oil is firmer as investors react to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and the possibility of disruption around the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The move looks like a classic risk-premium adjustment: broader risk assets are under pressure, but losses remain contained rather than disorderly. That suggests markets are treating the situation as a near-term geopolitical shock with supply implications, not yet as a confirmed interruption to flows.","why_it_matters":"This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, so even a partial repricing of disruption risk can spill beyond oil into equities, inflation expectations, and policy assumptions. If the market concludes that the tension is persistent, the effect is not limited to energy producers and consumers; it can alter the cost of capital and the risk appetite embedded in broader asset prices. For now, the market is signaling concern, but not yet a full conviction that supply will be materially impaired."},"ready_at":"2026-04-20T18:50:15.454259+00:00","status":"ready","summary":"Equities are softening while oil is firmer as investors react to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and the possibility of disruption around the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The move looks like a classic risk-premium adjustment: broader risk assets are under pressure, but losses remain contained rather than disorderly. That suggests markets are treating the situation as a near-term geopolitical shock with","title":"Markets are repricing Gulf conflict risk, but the signal is still headline-driven","updated_at":"2026-04-20T18:50:15.454259+00:00"}

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event_store.db — events

Update row 463484 in events