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{"artifact_id":"art_intel_alert_isk_7a80fd7e13132da3_20260414_1030","confidence":0.748,"created_at":"2026-04-14T12:39:03.706791+00:00","evidence_event_ids":["evt_1d2e26bf1403","evt_dd5e1f81f0ef","evt_1eb66002fb32","evt_fd869635a4d0","evt_20157e7158b8","evt_e139512b0dc3","evt_b94521dbc803","evt_5f7568605174","evt_a7111825174d","evt_f523aad0e394","evt_fcc9bfaf75e8"],"kind":"intel_alert","meta":{"alert_class":"developing","bucket":"2026-04-14T06:00","fingerprint":"{\"alert_class\": \"developing\", \"confidence\": 0.748, \"corroboration\": 0.788, \"story_id\": \"intel_e5e5a06d1710f9fc\", \"story_key\": \"isk_7a80fd7e13132da3e18b\"}","independent_source_count":10,"primary_source_count":0,"provenance_score":0.683,"source":"intel_runtime","story_id":"intel_e5e5a06d1710f9fc","story_key":"isk_7a80fd7e13132da3e18b","uncertainty_state":"open"},"output_json":{"alert_class":"developing","confidence":0.748,"continuity":{"current_quality_score":0.7486,"hours_since_last_seen":0.0,"last_confidence":0.748,"last_decision":"alert","last_quality_score":0.7911,"last_seen_at":"2026-04-14T10:30:00+00:00","narrative_hint":"Persistent multi-day narrative.","prior_story_count_96h":7,"quality_delta":-0.0425,"re_emerging":false,"state":"persistent","story_key":"isk_7a80fd7e13132da3e18b","trajectory":[{"confidence":0.748,"decision":"alert","headline":"Multiple outlets report that Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy is purchasing $1B worth of Bitcoin at an average price around $71.9K per BTC, framed as funded via a stock sale. This is a market-moving corporate/strategy capital-allocation claim rather than a policy or geopolitical development.","observed_at":"2026-04-14T10:30:00+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy bought $1B Bitcoin at $71.9K per BTC.","observed_at":"2026-04-14T01:40:00+00:00"},{"confidence":0.748,"decision":"alert","headline":"Multiple outlets are circulating a claim that Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy bought $1B of Bitcoin at an average price around $71.9K per BTC; however, the provided material does not include primary transaction documentation, so the development is best treated as a market/positioning update rather than an immediate, high-urgency global event.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:48:49+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"Strategy is using preferred stock sales to buy more Bitcoin (\u201cbuy the dip\u201d).","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45+00:00"},{"confidence":0.748,"decision":"alert","headline":"Multiple market-news outlets report that Michael Saylor\u2019s Strategy (a publicly traded company) is buying about $1B worth of Bitcoin, reportedly using preferred stock\u2014an event that is likely to be market-relevant but not clearly a systemic or immediate global shock based on the provided evidence.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"A strategy is buying $1 billion of Bitcoin using preferred stock.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T13:56:45+00:00"}]},"contradiction":{"claim_type_breakdown":{"geopolitical_event":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":1,"up":0},"market_news_development":{"count":16,"down":0,"neutral":14,"up":2},"market_price_development":{"count":8,"down":0,"neutral":6,"up":2},"policy_regulation_development":{"count":2,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":0}},"down_count":0,"flags":[],"has_conflict":false,"neutral_count":23,"up_count":4},"corroborated_summary":"Based on the supplied corroboration metrics (high claim agreement ~0.91, no contradiction flags, and broad independent-source coverage across many listed domains), the story is plausibly consistent with ongoing reporting about Saylor-linked Bitcoin accumulation and current BTC strength. However, the evidence quality is moderate (0.5767) and the provided excerpts do not include primary provenance (e.g., company filings, audited purchase records, or direct transaction logs) for the $1B/$71.9K figures.","corroboration":{"claim_agreement":0.9062,"claim_type_breakdown":{"geopolitical_event":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":1,"up":0},"market_news_development":{"count":16,"down":0,"neutral":14,"up":2},"market_price_development":{"count":8,"down":0,"neutral":6,"up":2},"policy_regulation_development":{"count":2,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":0}},"claim_type_coverage":4,"contradiction_flags":[],"evidence_event_count":27,"evidence_quality":0.5767,"high_precision_pass":true,"independent_source_coverage":13,"score":0.7879,"signal_family_coverage":2},"decision":"alert","degraded":false,"degraded_reason":"","entity_key":"macro:bitcoin","followup_status":"none","headline":"Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy bought $1B Bitcoin at $71.9K per BTC.","impact_score":0.6363,"importance":{"band":"high","continuity_state":"persistent","family_breadth":0.5,"provenance_score":0.683,"reasons":["strong_corroboration","continuity_persistent","world_key_asset"],"score":0.8664,"theme_prior":0.84,"trust_avg":0.6289},"information_gaps":["No article text is provided, so the exact figures, whether this is based on reported holdings vs. market prices, and the date of the valuation are unknown.","Hyperscale Data\u2019s ticker/symbol is not provided in the provided text.","The headline does not specify whether the claim implies a valuation anomaly, trend continuation, or reversal beyond the comparison itself.","No article text provided, so the specific U.S.-Iran development(s) driving the optimism are not stated.","No exact price level, time of day, or percentage change is provided.","No confirmation of whether the move implies continuation or reversal beyond the headline wording.","No article text was provided, so the identity of the \"strategy\" (company/fund/vehicle) is unknown.","No details on timing, execution, or whether the purchase is completed vs. planned.","No information on the stock sale (which issuer, size, or terms).","No confirmation of additional market impact beyond the headline claim.","No actual BTC price, percentage change, or direction (up/down) is provided.","No specific news catalyst or event details are provided."],"latest_observed_at":"2026-04-14T10:30:00+00:00","named_entities":["Hyperscale Data","Bitcoin","BTC","BTC-USD","BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky","BTC/USD","BTCUSD","Strategy","Michael Saylor\u2019s Strategy","Bitbo","LM Funding","Bank of Korea"],"normalized_claims":[{"claim":"Cash and Bitcoin exceed Hyperscale Data's entire market value.","claim_type":"market_news_development","confidence":0.55,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"8bd3973edfeda662","source_domain":"stocktitan.net"},{"claim":"Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Hits Four-Week High Amid Optimism Over U.S.-Ir - 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CoinDesk","claim_type":"market_news_development","confidence":0.6,"direction":"up","fact_id":"acbd8a6e4fbd3086","source_domain":"coindesk.com"},{"claim":"BTC retook $73,000 while oil gave up gains and stocks advanced.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.55,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"41fefba7f0bb4240","source_domain":"coindesk.com"},{"claim":"BTIG\u2019s Jonathan Krinsky believes Bitcoin\u2019s rebound suggests software stocks have bottomed.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.55,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"7f110b5071a06876","source_domain":"cnbc.com"},{"claim":"The headline indicates a BTC/USD (BTCUSD) stock price quotes and news page on Moomoo.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.55,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"0dae92cdde371d93","source_domain":"moomoo.com"},{"claim":"BTC/USD(BTCUSD) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","claim_type":"market_news_development","confidence":0.6,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"3c9e1185cd084f5f","source_domain":"moomoo.com"},{"claim":"Strategy is using preferred stock sales to buy more Bitcoin (\u201cbuy the dip\u201d).","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.55,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"56bc2df9570f3cf4","source_domain":"barrons.com"},{"claim":"Michael Saylor\u2019s Strategy buys $1B Bitcoin at $71.9K per BTC - Blockspace Media","claim_type":"market_news_development","confidence":0.6,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"77076257bf29557c","source_domain":"blockspace.media"},{"claim":"Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy bought $1B Bitcoin at $71.9K per BTC.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.55,"direction":"up","fact_id":"df4b5568f4abe799","source_domain":"blockspace.media"}],"personal_relevance":{"applied":true,"boost":0.008,"matched_assets":[],"matched_keywords":[],"score":0.1,"why_you":"No strong personal linkage detected."},"priority_score":0.7548,"quality_delta":0.7893,"quality_flags":[],"quality_score":0.7893,"recency_score":0.85,"recommended_checks":["Add at least one primary source confirmation before escalation.","Increase independent source coverage to reduce provenance risk.","Check whether the $1B purchase and $71.9K average price are tied to a specific date range; confirm the calculation method (weighted average, spot vs. execution price, fees/slippage).","Cross-check the claim against at least one primary transaction reference (filing line items, treasury/holdings updates, or exchange/OTC execution disclosures) rather than only syndicated headlines.","Confirm whether the $71.9K/BTC figure matches contemporaneous market prices at the claimed execution times (within a reasonable tolerance).","Assess whether the \u201cfour-week high amid U.S.-Iran optimism\u201d is independently supported by market commentary from major financial outlets, to ensure the geopolitical linkage is not overstated."],"risk_counterfactuals":["The $1B and $71.9K figures could be estimates, aggregated buys over a period, or derived from secondary reporting rather than a single confirmed transaction.","The average price may reflect a calculation method (e.g., weighted average across multiple lots) that is not disclosed in the provided text.","The purchase attribution to \u201cMichael Saylor\u2019s strategy\u201d may be imprecise (e.g., via related entities/vehicles) relative to the actual buyer of record.","Some outlets may be repeating the same originating claim without independent verification, inflating apparent corroboration."],"signal_families":["market_news","news"],"source_domains":["stocktitan.net","gurufocus.com","techinasia.com","moomoo.com","coindesk.com","cnbc.com","barrons.com","blockspace.media","finance.yahoo.com","bitbo.io","theblock.co","cryptonews.net","actusnews.com"],"source_refs":[{"domain":"cnbc.com","event_id":"evt_1d2e26bf1403","family":"news","headline":"BTIG\u2019s Jonathan Krinsky believes Bitcoin\u2019s rebound suggests software stocks have bottomed.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T19:46:31+00:00","signal_id":"sig_ee3d7bbd6657","signal_type":"news_headline_delta","source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"barrons.com","event_id":"evt_dd5e1f81f0ef","family":"market_news","headline":"Strategy is using preferred stock sales to buy more Bitcoin (\u201cbuy the dip\u201d).","observed_at":"2026-04-13T14:37:00+00:00","signal_id":"sig_bd16fdfc60fe","signal_type":"market_headline_delta","source":"Barron's","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"coindesk.com","event_id":"evt_1eb66002fb32","family":"market_news","headline":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - 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GuruFocus","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Hits Four-Week High Amid Optimism Over U.S.-Ir - GuruFocus","magnitude":0.5,"source":"GuruFocus","summary":"Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Hits Four-Week High Amid Optimism Over U.S.-Ir - GuruFocus","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxNNlRDeG1qeHdBamJKeTZVRWptSlpvSlRweGRSck9OTzFIcU1uWHU0S1ltcnVGcFBCZWpXM1VCbGNxQS1RaTBFNW42YzdLOTJ1SVJ2U21mWHZTaGRSYnkyZVl2YzJrZ1huamlrSEszYm84WXVyalBtOTJjY2NPdktoX3lRZnJTQWR2WWIyMm1ORFcyVnl6YWF6QTVsTWFoRDNTMlR5R1dSelFMZE9NVWdNYXlXWTdIZ3oyeEdEWg?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-14T09:22:30Z","claim":"BTC-USD hit a four-week high amid optimism over U.S.-Iran.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"BTC-USD hit a four-week high amid optimism over U.S.-Iran.","magnitude":0.7036,"source":"GuruFocus","summary":"Bitcoin (BTC-USD) reached a four-week high, with the move attributed to optimism over U.S.-Iran developments, per the GuruFocus headline.; Headline states Bitcoin (BTC-USD) hits a four-week high.; Headline links the move to optimism over U.S.-Iran.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-14T01:40:00Z","claim":"A strategy will buy $1 billion in bitcoin through a stock sale.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"up","family":"market_news","headline":"A strategy will buy $1 billion in bitcoin through a stock sale.","magnitude":0.7036,"source":"Tech in Asia","summary":"The headline claims a strategy is buying $1 billion worth of bitcoin using proceeds from a stock sale. No additional details are provided in the supplied text.; Headline states: \"Strategy buys $1b in bitcoin through stock sale\".; Amount mentioned: $1b.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:48:49Z","claim":"Bitcoin(BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Bitcoin(BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Moomoo","summary":"Bitcoin(BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwJBVV95cUxPNF9reGxuNjBvN2VnRlJzSHJ5OGMxTVEyUjdBaUI5cXhkRnBIa3IzUUFqR2h2UEdXVmtkMVVYSWp1SGJiM2F0dWNIRGJmYXZVQVFCQjZYYVc5N3BESTJvbGxydVg4M1pJQXp6ZWIwcVBwdUxGRGg5bDdGZ0pZUmJGOGdQcGNlekJPZHJqVHE5V0tFZVR4QlJSNEhLNDhzQWp6WmM1NzRVS1RwejlMUmpsc2VPRFdtR1c2emlOcmFyWWUtSXVvd1p0N2dPT3hnNE5WQTB5YjlRc2RFQTliNV9WNlF4T0pLZWlFVF9PXzJLSTBfVms3aTRieWRkWjNUM0lWNUJtZ0RqaVkzdDdhb0VqSHdHeEFNTUNyQXpz?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:48:49Z","claim":"Moomoo has a page titled \u201cBitcoin (BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News.\u201d","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Moomoo has a page titled \u201cBitcoin (BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News.\u201d","magnitude":0.415,"source":"Moomoo","summary":"The provided headline indicates a page on Moomoo showing Bitcoin (BTC) stock price quotes and related news for today. No specific price movement, news item, or market-moving claim is included in the provided text.; Headline references Bitcoin (BTC).; Headline references \u201cStock Price Today | Quotes & News.\u201d","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:04:22Z","claim":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"up","family":"market_news","headline":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","magnitude":0.5,"source":"CoinDesk","summary":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNNWtCZEVpVFBucS1OR2k3RlFjQXhGVUNENGN3dnZxcVZISktMY1NKVlRXRWQ0dkc0bWltMFlLeUZKZk9TbGdsaC1mSFBSaVNsOFRVbTJHWVFKTHR5QXFldGJjTzdsLWh1THoyaV9ZZXI1NnM2WmNZODBnOVNGbUpFU3lfY2kxT19VM1J6ekRqUUs0VFZDOEpoTmNzSnVVWHd0TXF1QlNGZXV0WHZjbmFIYjJVNGJvYW9lTUJDYlNkSmVYMHZSZDJTLQ?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45Z","claim":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"up","family":"market_news","headline":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","magnitude":0.5,"source":"CoinDesk","summary":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNNWtCZEVpVFBucS1OR2k3RlFjQXhGVUNENGN3dnZxcVZISktMY1NKVlRXRWQ0dkc0bWltMFlLeUZKZk9TbGdsaC1mSFBSaVNsOFRVbTJHWVFKTHR5QXFldGJjTzdsLWh1THoyaV9ZZXI1NnM2WmNZODBnOVNGbUpFU3lfY2kxT19VM1J6ekRqUUs0VFZDOEpoTmNzSnVVWHd0TXF1QlNGZXV0WHZjbmFIYjJVNGJvYW9lTUJDYlNkSmVYMHZSZDJTLQ?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45Z","claim":"BTC retook $73,000 while oil gave up gains and stocks advanced.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"BTC retook $73,000 while oil gave up gains and stocks advanced.","magnitude":0.7036,"source":"CoinDesk","summary":"The headline reports that Bitcoin (BTC) retook the $73,000 level as oil gains were reduced and stocks advanced.; Headline states BTC retakes $73,000.; Headline links BTC retaking $73,000 to oil giving up gains.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T19:46:31Z","claim":"BTIG\u2019s Jonathan Krinsky believes Bitcoin\u2019s rebound suggests software stocks have bottomed.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"BTIG\u2019s Jonathan Krinsky believes Bitcoin\u2019s rebound suggests software stocks have bottomed.","magnitude":0.571,"source":"CNBC","summary":"Bitcoin rebound suggests software stocks may have bottomed, says BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky CNBC; Headline states Bitcoin rebounded.; Headline states Krinsky (BTIG) said the rebound suggests software stocks may have bottomed.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"}],"timing_hints":["today"],"uncertainty_state":"open","unresolved_questions":["No article text is provided, so the exact figures, whether this is based on reported holdings vs. market prices, and the date of the valuation are unknown.","Hyperscale Data\u2019s ticker/symbol is not provided in the provided text.","The headline does not specify whether the claim implies a valuation anomaly, trend continuation, or reversal beyond the comparison itself.","No article text provided, so the specific U.S.-Iran development(s) driving the optimism are not stated.","No exact price level, time of day, or percentage change is provided.","No confirmation of whether the move implies continuation or reversal beyond the headline wording.","Add at least one primary source confirmation before escalation.","Increase independent source coverage to reduce provenance risk."],"urgency":"medium","what_changed":"The specific new element is the headline-level assertion of a large ($1B) Bitcoin purchase with an average price ($71.9K/BTC), presented alongside contemporaneous reporting that BTC is trading at/near a four-week high amid U.S.-Iran optimism.","why_now":"The claim is being amplified in the current news cycle (high recency score) while BTC price action is also in focus; however, the provided text does not show the underlying filing/transaction record needed to treat it as an immediate, high-urgency confirmation.","window_end":"2026-04-15T00:00:00Z","window_start":"2026-04-13T00:00:00Z","world_state_thesis":"Multiple outlets are circulating a claim that Michael Saylor\u2019s Bitcoin strategy bought $1B of Bitcoin at an average price around $71.9K/BTC; the broader market context (BTC trading near recent highs) is also being reported, but the provided material does not include primary transaction documentation or exact execution timestamps."},"output_mrkdwn":"","ready_at":"2026-04-14T12:39:03.706791+00:00","status":"ready","summary":"The claim is being amplified in the current news cycle (high recency score) while BTC price action is also in focus; however, the provided text does not show the underlying filing/transaction record needed to treat it as an immediate, high-urgency confirmation.","title":"Multiple outlets are circulating a claim that Michael Saylor\u2019s Bitcoin strategy bought $1B of Bitcoin at an average price around $71.9K/BTC; the broader market context (BTC trading near recent highs) is also being reported, but the provided material does not include primary transaction documentation or exact execution timestamps.","updated_at":"2026-04-14T12:39:03.706791+00:00"}

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event_store.db — events

Update row 42419 in events