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{"artifact_id":"art_intel_alert_isk_ab88bae6a2032b60_20260414_0140","confidence":0.748,"created_at":"2026-04-14T05:38:59.406698+00:00","evidence_event_ids":["evt_1d2e26bf1403","evt_dd5e1f81f0ef","evt_74d38082b972","evt_fd869635a4d0","evt_b94521dbc803","evt_a7111825174d","evt_f523aad0e394","evt_fcc9bfaf75e8","evt_c5c7438653ea","evt_ac9ee278b8ac","evt_408aa759fd7c"],"kind":"intel_alert","meta":{"alert_class":"developing","bucket":"2026-04-14T00:00","fingerprint":"{\"alert_class\": \"developing\", \"confidence\": 0.748, \"corroboration\": 0.784, \"story_id\": \"intel_e5e5a06d1710f9fc\", \"story_key\": \"isk_ab88bae6a2032b60eb2f\"}","independent_source_count":11,"primary_source_count":0,"provenance_score":0.692,"source":"intel_runtime","story_id":"intel_e5e5a06d1710f9fc","story_key":"isk_ab88bae6a2032b60eb2f","uncertainty_state":"open"},"output_json":{"alert_class":"developing","confidence":0.748,"continuity":{"current_quality_score":0.7425,"hours_since_last_seen":4.85,"last_confidence":0.748,"last_decision":"alert","last_quality_score":0.7822,"last_seen_at":"2026-04-13T20:48:49+00:00","narrative_hint":"Persistent multi-day narrative.","prior_story_count_96h":5,"quality_delta":-0.0397,"re_emerging":false,"state":"persistent","story_key":"isk_ab88bae6a2032b60eb2f","trajectory":[{"confidence":0.748,"decision":"alert","headline":"Multiple outlets are circulating a claim that Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy bought $1B of Bitcoin at an average price around $71.9K per BTC; however, the provided material does not include primary transaction documentation, so the development is best treated as a market/positioning update rather than an immediate, high-urgency global event.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:48:49+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"Strategy is using preferred stock sales to buy more Bitcoin (\u201cbuy the dip\u201d).","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45+00:00"},{"confidence":0.748,"decision":"alert","headline":"Multiple market-news outlets report that Michael Saylor\u2019s Strategy (a publicly traded company) is buying about $1B worth of Bitcoin, reportedly using preferred stock\u2014an event that is likely to be market-relevant but not clearly a systemic or immediate global shock based on the provided evidence.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"A strategy is buying $1 billion of Bitcoin using preferred stock.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T13:56:45+00:00"},{"confidence":0.748,"decision":"alert","headline":"Multiple market-news outlets report that a strategy associated with Michael Saylor has purchased about $1B worth of Bitcoin using preferred stock, including a specific figure of 13,927 BTC, implying continued large-scale accumulation rather than a policy/regulatory shift.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T12:58:00+00:00"}]},"contradiction":{"claim_type_breakdown":{"market_news_development":{"count":19,"down":0,"neutral":16,"up":3},"market_price_development":{"count":13,"down":0,"neutral":11,"up":2},"policy_regulation_development":{"count":2,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":0}},"down_count":0,"flags":[],"has_conflict":false,"neutral_count":29,"up_count":5},"corroborated_summary":"The supplied dataset indicates broad agreement across many listed domains that a $1B Bitcoin purchase is tied to a stock sale, and it includes a specific average price figure (~$71.9K/BTC). However, the evidence quality is only moderate (quality score ~0.567) and the timeline excerpts shown do not include the underlying primary document details needed to fully confirm execution terms and timing.","corroboration":{"claim_agreement":0.8961,"claim_type_breakdown":{"market_news_development":{"count":19,"down":0,"neutral":16,"up":3},"market_price_development":{"count":13,"down":0,"neutral":11,"up":2},"policy_regulation_development":{"count":2,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":0}},"claim_type_coverage":3,"contradiction_flags":[],"evidence_event_count":34,"evidence_quality":0.5674,"high_precision_pass":true,"independent_source_coverage":15,"score":0.7838,"signal_family_coverage":2},"decision":"alert","degraded":false,"degraded_reason":"","entity_key":"macro:bitcoin","followup_status":"none","headline":"Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy bought $1B Bitcoin at $71.9K per BTC.","impact_score":0.624,"importance":{"band":"high","continuity_state":"persistent","family_breadth":0.5,"provenance_score":0.692,"reasons":["strong_corroboration","continuity_persistent","world_key_asset"],"score":0.8661,"theme_prior":0.84,"trust_avg":0.6489},"information_gaps":["No article text was provided, so the identity of the \"strategy\" (company/fund/vehicle) is unknown.","No details on timing, execution, or whether the purchase is completed vs. planned.","No information on the stock sale (which issuer, size, or terms).","No confirmation of additional market impact beyond the headline claim.","No actual BTC price, percentage change, or direction (up/down) is provided.","No specific news catalyst or event details are provided.","No source summary or article text is available to extract further grounded facts.","No article text provided, so the timing, magnitude, and causality implied by the headline cannot be verified.","No specific oil ticker/contract or stock tickers/indices are provided in the provided text.","No details on whether the move is intraday, sustained, or tied to specific macro data.","No article text is provided beyond the headline/source summary, so the specific timing, magnitude, and evidence for the \u201cbottomed\u201d call are not available.","No details are given on which software stocks or indices are referenced."],"latest_observed_at":"2026-04-14T01:40:00+00:00","named_entities":["Bitcoin","BTC","BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky","BTC/USD","BTCUSD","Strategy","Michael Saylor\u2019s Strategy","Bitbo","LM Funding","Bank of Korea","Michael Saylor"],"normalized_claims":[{"claim":"A strategy will buy $1 billion in bitcoin through a stock sale.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.55,"direction":"up","fact_id":"0168de19dfcb4a91","source_domain":"techinasia.com"},{"claim":"Bitcoin(BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - 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Bitbo","claim_type":"market_news_development","confidence":0.6,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"06fd5385b40420d3","source_domain":"bitbo.io"}],"personal_relevance":{"applied":true,"boost":0.008,"matched_assets":[],"matched_keywords":[],"score":0.1,"why_you":"No strong personal linkage detected."},"priority_score":0.7491,"quality_delta":0.7889,"quality_flags":[],"quality_score":0.7889,"recency_score":0.85,"recommended_checks":["Add at least one primary source confirmation before escalation.","Increase independent source coverage to reduce provenance risk.","Locate and review the primary disclosure that would substantiate the stock sale and Bitcoin purchase plan (e.g., company filing/press release referenced by the reporting).","Confirm whether the $1B is (a) authorized, (b) proceeds from a specific stock sale, or (c) already executed purchase value.","Verify the provenance of the ~$71.9K/BTC average price figure: whether it is an execution average, a projected average, or a reference price.","Check for additional reporting that specifies timing (announcement date vs. settlement/execution window) and tranche structure."],"risk_counterfactuals":["The $71.9K/BTC figure could be an estimate, a reference price, or an average across a planned tranche rather than the actual executed average.","The $1B amount could refer to authorization/proceeds or a planned allocation, not necessarily completed purchases.","The stock-sale linkage could be misstated or incomplete (e.g., proceeds earmarked but not yet deployed).","Some republished items may be generic quote/news pages rather than confirmations of the $1B purchase claim."],"signal_families":["market_news","news"],"source_domains":["techinasia.com","moomoo.com","coindesk.com","cnbc.com","barrons.com","blockspace.media","finance.yahoo.com","bitbo.io","stocktitan.net","theblock.co","cryptonews.net","theglobeandmail.com","marketbeat.com","coingecko.com","actusnews.com"],"source_refs":[{"domain":"cnbc.com","event_id":"evt_1d2e26bf1403","family":"news","headline":"BTIG\u2019s Jonathan Krinsky believes Bitcoin\u2019s rebound suggests software stocks have bottomed.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T19:46:31+00:00","signal_id":"sig_ee3d7bbd6657","signal_type":"news_headline_delta","source":"CNBC","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"barrons.com","event_id":"evt_dd5e1f81f0ef","family":"market_news","headline":"Strategy is using preferred stock sales to buy more Bitcoin (\u201cbuy the dip\u201d).","observed_at":"2026-04-13T14:37:00+00:00","signal_id":"sig_bd16fdfc60fe","signal_type":"market_headline_delta","source":"Barron's","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"coindesk.com","event_id":"evt_74d38082b972","family":"market_news","headline":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - 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No additional details are provided in the supplied text.; Headline states: \"Strategy buys $1b in bitcoin through stock sale\".; Amount mentioned: $1b.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:48:49Z","claim":"Bitcoin(BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Bitcoin(BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Moomoo","summary":"Bitcoin(BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwJBVV95cUxPNF9reGxuNjBvN2VnRlJzSHJ5OGMxTVEyUjdBaUI5cXhkRnBIa3IzUUFqR2h2UEdXVmtkMVVYSWp1SGJiM2F0dWNIRGJmYXZVQVFCQjZYYVc5N3BESTJvbGxydVg4M1pJQXp6ZWIwcVBwdUxGRGg5bDdGZ0pZUmJGOGdQcGNlekJPZHJqVHE5V0tFZVR4QlJSNEhLNDhzQWp6WmM1NzRVS1RwejlMUmpsc2VPRFdtR1c2emlOcmFyWWUtSXVvd1p0N2dPT3hnNE5WQTB5YjlRc2RFQTliNV9WNlF4T0pLZWlFVF9PXzJLSTBfVms3aTRieWRkWjNUM0lWNUJtZ0RqaVkzdDdhb0VqSHdHeEFNTUNyQXpz?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:48:49Z","claim":"Moomoo has a page titled \u201cBitcoin (BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News.\u201d","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Moomoo has a page titled \u201cBitcoin (BTC) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News.\u201d","magnitude":0.415,"source":"Moomoo","summary":"The provided headline indicates a page on Moomoo showing Bitcoin (BTC) stock price quotes and related news for today. No specific price movement, news item, or market-moving claim is included in the provided text.; Headline references Bitcoin (BTC).; Headline references \u201cStock Price Today | Quotes & News.\u201d","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:04:22Z","claim":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"up","family":"market_news","headline":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","magnitude":0.5,"source":"CoinDesk","summary":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNNWtCZEVpVFBucS1OR2k3RlFjQXhGVUNENGN3dnZxcVZISktMY1NKVlRXRWQ0dkc0bWltMFlLeUZKZk9TbGdsaC1mSFBSaVNsOFRVbTJHWVFKTHR5QXFldGJjTzdsLWh1THoyaV9ZZXI1NnM2WmNZODBnOVNGbUpFU3lfY2kxT19VM1J6ekRqUUs0VFZDOEpoTmNzSnVVWHd0TXF1QlNGZXV0WHZjbmFIYjJVNGJvYW9lTUJDYlNkSmVYMHZSZDJTLQ?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45Z","claim":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"up","family":"market_news","headline":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","magnitude":0.5,"source":"CoinDesk","summary":"BItcoin price news: BTC retakes $73,000 as oil gives up gains, stocks advance - CoinDesk","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiyAFBVV95cUxNNWtCZEVpVFBucS1OR2k3RlFjQXhGVUNENGN3dnZxcVZISktMY1NKVlRXRWQ0dkc0bWltMFlLeUZKZk9TbGdsaC1mSFBSaVNsOFRVbTJHWVFKTHR5QXFldGJjTzdsLWh1THoyaV9ZZXI1NnM2WmNZODBnOVNGbUpFU3lfY2kxT19VM1J6ekRqUUs0VFZDOEpoTmNzSnVVWHd0TXF1QlNGZXV0WHZjbmFIYjJVNGJvYW9lTUJDYlNkSmVYMHZSZDJTLQ?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:03:45Z","claim":"BTC retook $73,000 while oil gave up gains and stocks advanced.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"BTC retook $73,000 while oil gave up gains and stocks advanced.","magnitude":0.7036,"source":"CoinDesk","summary":"The headline reports that Bitcoin (BTC) retook the $73,000 level as oil gains were reduced and stocks advanced.; Headline states BTC retakes $73,000.; Headline links BTC retaking $73,000 to oil giving up gains.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T19:46:31Z","claim":"BTIG\u2019s Jonathan Krinsky believes Bitcoin\u2019s rebound suggests software stocks have bottomed.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"BTIG\u2019s Jonathan Krinsky believes Bitcoin\u2019s rebound suggests software stocks have bottomed.","magnitude":0.571,"source":"CNBC","summary":"Bitcoin rebound suggests software stocks may have bottomed, says BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky CNBC; Headline states Bitcoin rebounded.; Headline states Krinsky (BTIG) said the rebound suggests software stocks may have bottomed.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T16:56:16Z","claim":"The headline indicates a BTC/USD (BTCUSD) stock price quotes and news page on Moomoo.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"The headline indicates a BTC/USD (BTCUSD) stock price quotes and news page on Moomoo.","magnitude":0.376,"source":"Moomoo","summary":"The provided headline is a generic market page for BTC/USD quotes and news on Moomoo. No specific market-moving claim, price level, or directional trend is stated in the available text.; Headline references BTC/USD (BTCUSD).; Headline references \u201cStock Price Today | Quotes & News\u201d on Moomoo.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T16:56:16Z","claim":"BTC/USD(BTCUSD) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"BTC/USD(BTCUSD) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Moomoo","summary":"BTC/USD(BTCUSD) Stock Price Today | Quotes & News - Moomoo","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgJBVV95cUxPMTdIUndzaGZ6Y09jX0kxQmZEbFBkblpvRDlkMW14STdVRVZXYXQ2RnVVRlBzM0JSVUVGSjlBYmh3aEFIS2FwUDA3dk5iS1R2M2ROS1F4MmY2UWtoMER4bkxza0l1ZHIybXhkM3VvMTZpU3BXY0R1NW43WTJpUXFQSHhYMC1hNlV3d1RZU19OZWdiRGowYk1IdkMyc3AxSDhSTG9WbFczZk11RnhPblNwdGMwUTdWN3pwMjBlam9MeVg4NTdxbjhIOU1KeS1hbDJLdFNDVV9jcGt5eUYya0pSTUtINHRWVDlPb25DWWtMbFpKTXI4VnBPYnhCRTZzbXh3QkpIY3dDdnpGaDF6WUpyOTg0cFF4WVNPU1FBY3hUX3hJZ1NMSGkzWkg2QXZxamxrV0tpQ3VGZlZNbGVQSE1PTVVYVThmdw?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T14:37:00Z","claim":"Strategy is using preferred stock sales to buy more Bitcoin (\u201cbuy the dip\u201d).","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Strategy is using preferred stock sales to buy more Bitcoin (\u201cbuy the dip\u201d).","magnitude":0.7036,"source":"Barron's","summary":"Barron\u2019s headline says Strategy is buying more Bitcoin by using preferred stock sales to purchase on a dip.; Headline states \u201cStrategy Snaps Up More Bitcoin.\u201d; Headline states it is \u201cUsing Preferred Stock Sales to Buy the Dip.\u201d","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"}],"timing_hints":["today"],"uncertainty_state":"open","unresolved_questions":["No article text was provided, so the identity of the \"strategy\" (company/fund/vehicle) is unknown.","No details on timing, execution, or whether the purchase is completed vs. planned.","No information on the stock sale (which issuer, size, or terms).","No confirmation of additional market impact beyond the headline claim.","No actual BTC price, percentage change, or direction (up/down) is provided.","No specific news catalyst or event details are provided.","Add at least one primary source confirmation before escalation.","Increase independent source coverage to reduce provenance risk."],"urgency":"medium","what_changed":"The new/most recent item in the provided timeline is a headline asserting a $1B Bitcoin purchase through a stock sale, with an average price figure of ~$71.9K/BTC. This is the concrete, quantified claim driving the update.","why_now":"The claim is being actively republished across market/news sources and is recent in the provided timeline (2026-04-14T01:40Z), making it timely for market participants to verify against primary disclosures.","window_end":"2026-04-15T00:00:00Z","window_start":"2026-04-13T00:00:00Z","world_state_thesis":"Multiple outlets are circulating a claim that Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy will buy $1B worth of Bitcoin at an average price around $71.9K per BTC, reportedly funded via a stock sale. If accurate, this would represent a large, near-term demand signal for BTC, but the supplied material does not include primary transaction details (e.g., filing language, exact execution timing)."},"output_mrkdwn":"","ready_at":"2026-04-14T05:38:59.406698+00:00","status":"ready","summary":"The claim is being actively republished across market/news sources and is recent in the provided timeline (2026-04-14T01:40Z), making it timely for market participants to verify against primary disclosures.","title":"Multiple outlets are circulating a claim that Michael Saylor\u2019s strategy will buy $1B worth of Bitcoin at an average price around $71.9K per BTC, reportedly funded via a stock sale. If accurate, this would represent a large, near-term demand signal for BTC, but the supplied material does not include primary transaction details (e.g., filing language, exact execution timing).","updated_at":"2026-04-14T05:38:59.406698+00:00"}

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event_store.db — events

Update row 40496 in events