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{"created_at":"2026-04-18T13:13:35.877203+00:00","dedupe_key":"signal_enriched:discovery_unusual_volume_delta:9a5e14c60a852e6a","evidence_event_ids":["evt_e09afb1cd3b2"],"signal_type":"discovery_unusual_volume_delta","source":"discovery_ingestor","value":{"aggregator_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/experts-warn-recession-risks-are-increasing-heres-what-means-investors","as_of":"2026-04-18T13:13:35.877203+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/18/the-risk-of-a-recession-has-increased-heres-what-t/","enrichment":{"aggregator_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/experts-warn-recession-risks-are-increasing-heres-what-means-investors","article_chars":5000,"article_truncated":true,"blocked_reason":null,"candidate_id":"sc_228126006276cb60","canonical_host":"fool.com","canonical_is_aggregator":false,"canonical_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/18/the-risk-of-a-recession-has-increased-heres-what-t/","content_type":"text/html; charset=utf-8","enriched_at":"2026-04-18T13:15:53.755520+00:00","extraction_method":"trafilatura","fetched_description":"Key PointsOil prices are still elevated, pushing inflation higher.","fetched_title":"Experts Warn That Recession Risks Are Increasing. Here's What That Means for Investors | Nasdaq","final_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/experts-warn-recession-risks-are-increasing-heres-what-means-investors","html_truncated":false,"paywall_likely":false,"publisher_domain":"fool.com","publisher_resolution":"canonical_url","requested_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/experts-warn-recession-risks-are-increasing-heres-what-means-investors","source_event_id":"evt_e09afb1cd3b2","source_quality":"high","status_code":200,"version":"signal_enrichment_v2"},"fp":"852807b3cce53c0c","kind":"unusual_volume","published_at":"2026-04-18T12:35:00+00:00","publisher_domain":"fool.com","signal_understanding":{"analysis_basis":"article","claim_confidence":0.72,"dates_mentioned":["March","2000","2026","December 17, 2004","April 15, 2005","2008"],"entities":[{"asset_class":"other","name":"International Monetary Fund (IMF)","relevance":"high","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"other","name":"Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"person"},{"asset_class":"other","name":"BBC","relevance":"low","symbol":"","type":"media"},{"asset_class":"other","name":"Vanguard","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"other","name":"Goldman Sachs","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"other","name":"Federal Reserve","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"equity_index","name":"S&P 500 Index","relevance":"high","symbol":"^GSPC","type":"index"},{"asset_class":"other","name":"Motley Fool Stock Advisor","relevance":"low","symbol":"","type":"organization"},{"asset_class":"equity","name":"Nvidia","relevance":"low","symbol":"","type":"company"},{"asset_class":"equity","name":"Intel","relevance":"low","symbol":"","type":"company"}],"event_type":"macro_policy","information_gaps":["No ticker or volume data is provided in the text, so the unusual volume ratio vs average cannot be extracted.","The signal type indicates unusual volume delta, but the article content is about macro/recession risk; no confirmation of unusual trading volume is mentioned.","No explicit catalyst for a specific stock\u2019s volume spike is provided; the only catalyst discussed is elevated oil prices tied to the war in Iran."],"key_facts":["The article states that oil prices are still elevated and are pushing inflation higher.","It says the IMF warned that the war in Iran could slow global economic growth and that persistently high oil prices could push inflation to 6% by next year.","It reports that Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the oil crisis could rival the 1970s and could elevate unemployment and food insecurity in some countries (via a BBC interview).","It states Vanguard forecast that oil prices would need to remain elevated at $150 per barrel to trigger a U.S. recession.","It says researchers found that even if oil prices remain slightly above prewar levels for a few months, it could slow U.S. GDP and push inflation up by around 0.4%.","It states that the risk of a recession is described as moderately low right now.","It reports Goldman Sachs predicted a 30% chance of a recession beginning in the next 12 months, up from 25%.","It states the Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates steady.","It notes the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high recently, two weeks after hitting its lowest point of the year."],"numeric_claims":[{"label":"Inflation potential","value":"6% by next year"},{"label":"Oil price threshold (Vanguard)","value":"$150 per barrel"},{"label":"Inflation increase (researchers)","value":"~0.4%"},{"label":"Goldman Sachs recession probability (next 12 months)","value":"30%"},{"label":"Goldman Sachs prior recession probability","value":"25%"}],"primary_claim":"Persistently high oil prices from the war in Iran could increase inflation (potentially up to 6% by next year) and raise the risk of a recession.","relevance_score":0.45,"sentiment":"mixed","source_quality":"high","summary":"The article argues that recession risk is increasing due to persistently high oil prices tied to the war in Iran, which could raise inflation and slow global growth. It cites multiple economists\u2019 forecasts and suggests investors focus on long-term positioning amid uncertainty.","topics":["recession risk","oil prices","inflation","war in Iran","Federal Reserve interest rates","S&P 500 performance","investing strategy","IMF forecast","Goldman Sachs recession probability"]},"source":"Nasdaq Markets","source_domain":"fool.com","summary":"Key PointsOil prices are still elevated, pushing inflation higher.","tickers":[],"title":"Experts Warn That Recession Risks Are Increasing. Here's What That Means for Investors","url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/18/the-risk-of-a-recession-has-increased-heres-what-t/"}}

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event_store.db — events

Update row 190035 in events