| payload |
{"created_at":"2026-04-08T06:31:07.641 {"created_at":"2026-04-08T06:31:07.641041+00:00","dedupe_key":"signal_enriched:discovery_crypto_extremes_delta:a3d8f6cd84a67225","evidence_event_ids":["evt_fbc339b52d23"],"signal_type":"discovery_crypto_extremes_delta","source":"discovery_ingestor","value":{"aggregator_url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/why-long-term-profitability-remains-elusive-for-99-of-polymarket-users/","as_of":"2026-04-08T06:31:07.641041+00:00","canonical_url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/why-long-term-profitability-remains-elusive-for-99-of-polymarket-users/","enrichment":{"aggregator_url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/why-long-term-profitability-remains-elusive-for-99-of-polymarket-users/","article_chars":3149,"article_truncated":false,"blocked_reason":null,"candidate_id":"sc_c3096b5001ab40db","canonical_host":"news.bitcoin.com","canonical_is_aggregator":false,"canonical_url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/why-long-term-profitability-remains-elusive-for-99-of-polymarket-users/","content_type":"text/html; charset=utf-8","enriched_at":"2026-04-08T06:32:37.215347+00:00","extraction_method":"heuristic","fetched_description":"Are Polymarket traders actually profitable? A new report reveals that 84% of traders are in the red, with only 0.033% earning over $100k.","fetched_title":"Why Long-Term Profitability Remains Elusive for 99% of Polymarket Users \u2013 Crypto News Bitcoin News","final_url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/why-long-term-profitability-remains-elusive-for-99-of-polymarket-users/","html_truncated":true,"paywall_likely":false,"publisher_domain":"news.bitcoin.com","publisher_resolution":"canonical_url","requested_url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/why-long-term-profitability-remains-elusive-for-99-of-polymarket-users/","source_event_id":"evt_fbc339b52d23","source_quality":"high","status_code":200,"version":"signal_enrichment_v2"},"fp":"892d95c323c83122","kind":"crypto_extremes","published_at":"2026-04-08T05:30:47+00:00","publisher_domain":"news.bitcoin.com","signal_understanding":{"analysis_basis":"article","claim_confidence":0.74,"dates_mentioned":["Apr 8, 2026"],"entities":[{"asset_class":"crypto/prediction market","name":"Polymarket","relevance":"high","symbol":"","type":"platform"},{"asset_class":"person","name":"Andrey Sergeenkov","relevance":"high","symbol":"","type":"researcher"},{"asset_class":"geopolitical","name":"Venezuela","relevance":"medium","symbol":"","type":"country"},{"asset_class":"prediction market","name":"Kalshi","relevance":"low","symbol":"","type":"platform"}],"event_type":"other","information_gaps":["The article does not provide the report\u2019s methodology details beyond stating it examined 2.5 million wallet addresses.","The article does not define how \u201cunprofitable,\u201d \u201ctotal profit,\u201d or \u201ccurrently losing money\u201d are calculated.","No direct link or citation to the underlying report is included in the provided text.","The article mentions a $400,000 payout example but does not provide the bet details beyond it being on the ouster of Venezuela\u2019s leader.","The article begins to discuss prediction market volume and Dune Analytics, but the provided text cuts off before those figures are fully stated."],"key_facts":["The article states that Andrey Sergeenkov\u2019s report examined 2.5 million wallet addresses.","The article claims 84.1% of Polymarket traders are currently unprofitable (in the red).","The article claims only 2% of users have accumulated more than $1,000 in total profit over their entire trading history.","The article claims 0.033% of Polymarket traders have cleared $100,000.","The article states that 0.32% (8,000 addresses) have net wins exceeding $10,000.","The article claims the probability of earning $5,000 in a single month is less than 1%.","The article claims that across income brackets, the largest share of winners remain active for only one month.","The article claims that even among the elite group averaging $10,000 or more per month, most drop off within a few months.","The article states that only a tiny minority of traders stay active for 13 months or more."],"numeric_claims":[{"label":"Unprofitable traders","value":"84.1%"},{"label":"Total users/wallet addresses examined","value":"2.5 million"},{"label":"Users with >$1,000 total profit","value":"2%"},{"label":"Traders clearing $100,000","value":"0.033%"},{"label":"Addresses with net wins >$10,000","value":"0.32% (8,000 addresses)"},{"label":"Probability of earning $5,000 in a single month","value":"<1%"},{"label":"Winners active duration (general)","value":"largest share active for 1 month (no percentage given)"},{"label":"Winners active duration (elite)","value":"most drop off within a few months (no percentage given)"},{"label":"Traders active for 13+ months","value":"tiny minority (no percentage given)"}],"primary_claim":"The report by Andrey Sergeenkov (examining 2.5 million wallet addresses) finds 84.1% of Polymarket traders are currently losing money, and only 0.033% have cleared $100,000 in total profit.","relevance_score":0.72,"sentiment":"mixed","source_quality":"high","summary":"A report cited by Crypto News Bitcoin News claims most Polymarket traders are unprofitable, with only a very small fraction reaching large cumulative net profits. It also argues that even among winners, activity tends to be short-lived.","topics":["crypto","prediction markets","trader profitability","on-chain analysis","user outcomes","earnings distribution","Polymarket"]},"source":"Bitcoin.com News","source_domain":"news.bitcoin.com","summary":"Despite the hype surrounding massive payouts, a report by Andrey Sergeenkov reveals that 84.1% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. The report shows that high earnings are extremely rare: only 2% have made over $1,000, and a tiny 0.033% have cleared $100,000. Key Takeaways: A new study found that 84.1% of all 2.5 million Polymarket users [\u2026]","tickers":[],"title":"Why Long-Term Profitability Remains Elusive for 99% of Polymarket Users","url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/why-long-term-profitability-remains-elusive-for-99-of-polymarket-users/"}}... |