| payload |
{"artifact_id":"art_intel_alert_isk_e0 {"artifact_id":"art_intel_alert_isk_e0725a69f082e144_20260414_0908","confidence":0.788,"created_at":"2026-04-14T09:39:02.639672+00:00","evidence_event_ids":["evt_43c26dd6c5ab","evt_0fb8c24faa78","evt_efb49bbea0c0","evt_85367db527ae","evt_bdaeb0fb45d7","evt_eb1faad91a1e"],"kind":"intel_alert","meta":{"alert_class":"developing","bucket":"2026-04-14T00:00","fingerprint":"{\"alert_class\": \"developing\", \"confidence\": 0.788, \"corroboration\": 0.78, \"story_id\": \"intel_0d061dc09e06f3c9\", \"story_key\": \"isk_e0725a69f082e1449ca6\"}","independent_source_count":5,"primary_source_count":0,"provenance_score":0.676,"source":"intel_runtime","story_id":"intel_0d061dc09e06f3c9","story_key":"isk_e0725a69f082e1449ca6","uncertainty_state":"open"},"output_json":{"alert_class":"developing","confidence":0.788,"continuity":{"current_quality_score":0.7659,"hours_since_last_seen":12.38,"last_confidence":0.56,"last_decision":"monitor","last_quality_score":0.7046,"last_seen_at":"2026-04-13T20:46:00+00:00","narrative_hint":"Escalating multi-day narrative.","prior_story_count_96h":2,"quality_delta":0.0613,"re_emerging":false,"state":"escalating","story_key":"isk_e0725a69f082e1449ca6","trajectory":[{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed on a still-hopeful Wall Street.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:46:00+00:00"},{"confidence":0.46,"decision":"monitor","headline":"The headline suggests oil prices are rising and questions whether markets have already passed the peak fear/sell-off phase.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T05:14:38+00:00"}]},"contradiction":{"claim_type_breakdown":{"geopolitical_event":{"count":2,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":0},"market_price_development":{"count":4,"down":0,"neutral":4,"up":0}},"down_count":0,"flags":[],"has_conflict":false,"neutral_count":6,"up_count":0},"corroborated_summary":"Multiple provided sources (The New York Times, KTVN, PBS, and stonex.com) collectively describe: (1) oil prices slipping/easing back from earlier moves and (2) U.S. stocks gaining/rallying. The geopolitical linkage in the NYT framing is that investor optimism about a possible path to peace is supporting equities while oil softens.","corroboration":{"claim_agreement":1.0,"claim_type_breakdown":{"geopolitical_event":{"count":2,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":0},"market_price_development":{"count":4,"down":0,"neutral":4,"up":0}},"claim_type_coverage":2,"contradiction_flags":[],"evidence_event_count":6,"evidence_quality":0.585,"high_precision_pass":true,"independent_source_coverage":5,"score":0.7803,"signal_family_coverage":2},"decision":"alert","degraded":false,"degraded_reason":"","entity_key":"commodity:us_oil_wti","followup_status":"none","headline":"Oil prices slipped and stocks gained amid investor optimism about a possible path to peace.","impact_score":0.659,"importance":{"band":"high","continuity_state":"escalating","family_breadth":0.5,"provenance_score":0.676,"reasons":["world_critical_theme","strong_corroboration","continuity_escalating"],"score":0.8625,"theme_prior":0.92,"trust_avg":0.6133},"information_gaps":["No specific country/party or conflict is named for the \u201cpossible path to peace.\u201d","No magnitude (percent/points) of oil price or stock moves is provided.","No specific stock index or tickers are identified.","No timing details (e.g., intraday vs. multi-day) are provided beyond the headline framing.","No article text is provided beyond the headline/source summary, so the magnitude, drivers, and specific measures of \u201celevated\u201d are unknown.","No timing/catalyst window is stated in the provided text.","No specific locations/grades (e.g., WTI/Brent, specific delivery points) are mentioned.","No article text is available; only the headline/summary is provided.","No specific oil benchmark (e.g., WTI/Brent) or exact price levels are mentioned.","No specific US stock index or magnitude of the rally is provided.","No timing details beyond \u201cmorning spurts\u201d are provided.","No specific oil price level, percentage change, or time window is provided."],"latest_observed_at":"2026-04-14T09:08:55+00:00","named_entities":["Oil","CL=F","Stocks","Investors","The New York Times","Crude oil physical markets","Oil prices","US stocks","U.S. stocks","Wall Street"],"normalized_claims":[{"claim":"Oil prices slipped and stocks gained amid investor optimism about a possible path to peace.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","confidence":0.62,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"5868a9b88064902a","source_domain":"nytimes.com"},{"claim":"Crude oil physical markets remain elevated.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.6,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"f17eebff2bd66b0e","source_domain":"stonex.com"},{"claim":"Oil prices eased back from their morning spurts while US stocks rallied on a hopeful Wall Street.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.62,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"a266e5d3ecdeb22a","source_domain":"2news.com"},{"claim":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed on a still-hopeful Wall Street.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.6,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"34158e6f2f0c07f6","source_domain":"pbs.org"},{"claim":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed amid a still-hopeful Wall Street.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.62,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"95ba93cd7c5a9c0b","source_domain":"pbs.org"},{"claim":"Geopolitical tensions are impacting markets amid an oil price surge.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","confidence":0.45,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"040bb84dba57d459","source_domain":"gurufocus.com"}],"personal_relevance":{"applied":true,"boost":0.008,"matched_assets":[],"matched_keywords":[],"score":0.1,"why_you":"No strong personal linkage detected."},"priority_score":0.7878,"quality_delta":0.7943,"quality_flags":[],"quality_score":0.7943,"recency_score":1.0,"recommended_checks":["Add at least one primary source confirmation before escalation.","Increase independent source coverage to reduce provenance risk.","Verify whether the cited \u201cpossible path to peace\u201d refers to a specific, named negotiation or statement, and check for any follow-on official updates in the same timeframe.","Check additional contemporaneous market data (e.g., WTI spot/futures and major U.S. equity indices) to confirm the magnitude and direction of the moves described.","Look for alternative explanations in the same reporting set (inventory data, OPEC+ signals, dollar/interest-rate moves) to assess whether the geopolitical attribution is primary or secondary."],"risk_counterfactuals":["If the \u201cpossible path to peace\u201d narrative is later contradicted or delayed, the sentiment-driven equity support could fade while oil could reprice on renewed geopolitical risk.","If oil\u2019s move is driven primarily by supply/demand or technical factors rather than sentiment, the geopolitical interpretation may be overstated even if the market directions remain accurate."],"signal_families":["news","market_news"],"source_domains":["nytimes.com","stonex.com","2news.com","pbs.org","gurufocus.com"],"source_refs":[{"domain":"pbs.org","event_id":"evt_43c26dd6c5ab","family":"market_news","headline":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed on a still-hopeful Wall Street.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T19:35:10+00:00","signal_id":"sig_bd3ea3410838","signal_type":"market_headline_delta","source":"PBS","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"pbs.org","event_id":"evt_0fb8c24faa78","family":"news","headline":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed amid a still-hopeful Wall Street.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T19:35:10+00:00","signal_id":"sig_380379458dc8","signal_type":"news_headline_delta","source":"PBS","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"nytimes.com","event_id":"evt_efb49bbea0c0","family":"news","headline":"Oil prices slipped and stocks gained amid investor optimism about a possible path to peace.","observed_at":"2026-04-14T09:08:55+00:00","signal_id":"sig_15a7af630a7a","signal_type":"news_headline_delta","source":"The New York Times","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"stonex.com","event_id":"evt_85367db527ae","family":"news","headline":"Crude oil physical markets remain elevated.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:46:00+00:00","signal_id":"sig_c253adee8692","signal_type":"news_headline_delta","source":"stonex.com","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"2news.com","event_id":"evt_bdaeb0fb45d7","family":"news","headline":"Oil prices eased back from their morning spurts while US stocks rallied on a hopeful Wall Street.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T20:03:01+00:00","signal_id":"sig_80efa5d3972c","signal_type":"news_headline_delta","source":"KTVN","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"domain":"gurufocus.com","event_id":"evt_eb1faad91a1e","family":"market_news","headline":"Geopolitical tensions are impacting markets amid an oil price surge.","observed_at":"2026-04-13T14:37:16+00:00","signal_id":"sig_0692ee5f2166","signal_type":"market_headline_delta","source":"GuruFocus","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"}],"source_trust":{"avg_score":0.6133,"domains":[{"count":2,"domain":"pbs.org","primary":false,"score":0.68,"source":"PBS","url_count":2},{"count":1,"domain":"nytimes.com","primary":false,"score":0.58,"source":"The New York Times","url_count":1},{"count":1,"domain":"stonex.com","primary":false,"score":0.58,"source":"stonex.com","url_count":1},{"count":1,"domain":"2news.com","primary":false,"score":0.58,"source":"KTVN","url_count":1},{"count":1,"domain":"gurufocus.com","primary":false,"score":0.58,"source":"GuruFocus","url_count":1}],"flags":["missing_primary_sources"],"high_trust_source_count":0,"independent_source_count":5,"low_trust_source_count":0,"primary_source_count":0,"provenance_score":0.676,"refs_total":6,"url_ratio":1.0},"story_id":"intel_0d061dc09e06f3c9","story_key":"isk_e0725a69f082e1449ca6","summary":"Oil Prices Slip and Stocks Gain as Investors Eye Possible Path to Peace The New York Times; Oil prices slipped.; Stocks gained.","theme_key":"commodities","timeline":[{"at":"2026-04-14T09:08:55Z","claim":"Oil prices slipped and stocks gained amid investor optimism about a possible path to peace.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Oil prices slipped and stocks gained amid investor optimism about a possible path to peace.","magnitude":0.68,"source":"The New York Times","summary":"Oil Prices Slip and Stocks Gain as Investors Eye Possible Path to Peace The New York Times; Oil prices slipped.; Stocks gained.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:46:00Z","claim":"Crude oil physical markets remain elevated.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Crude oil physical markets remain elevated.","magnitude":0.493,"source":"stonex.com","summary":"Crude Oil Physical Markets Remain Elevated stonex.com; stonex.com headline states that crude oil physical markets remain elevated.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:03:01Z","claim":"Oil prices eased back from their morning spurts while US stocks rallied on a hopeful Wall Street.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Oil prices eased back from their morning spurts while US stocks rallied on a hopeful Wall Street.","magnitude":0.571,"source":"KTVN","summary":"Oil prices ease back from their morning spurts as US stocks rally on a still hopeful Wall Street KTVN; Oil prices eased back from their morning spurts.; US stocks rallied.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T19:35:10Z","claim":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed on a still-hopeful Wall Street.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed on a still-hopeful Wall Street.","magnitude":0.649,"source":"PBS","summary":"The headline says oil prices reversed much of their earlier morning gains as U.S. stocks rose, reflecting a still-hopeful Wall Street.; Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump.; U.S. stocks climbed.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T19:35:10Z","claim":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed amid a still-hopeful Wall Street.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump while U.S. stocks climbed amid a still-hopeful Wall Street.","magnitude":0.571,"source":"PBS","summary":"Oil prices give back much of their morning jump as U.S. stocks climb on a still hopeful Wall Street PBS; Oil prices gave back much of their morning jump.; U.S. stocks climbed.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T14:37:16Z","claim":"Geopolitical tensions are impacting markets amid an oil price surge.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Geopolitical tensions are impacting markets amid an oil price surge.","magnitude":0.68,"source":"GuruFocus","summary":"The headline claims that geopolitical tensions are affecting markets, coinciding with an oil price surge.; Headline states geopolitical tensions are impacting markets.; Headline states oil prices are surging.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"}],"timing_hints":[],"uncertainty_state":"open","unresolved_questions":["No specific country/party or conflict is named for the \u201cpossible path to peace.\u201d","No magnitude (percent/points) of oil price or stock moves is provided.","No specific stock index or tickers are identified.","No timing details (e.g., intraday vs. multi-day) are provided beyond the headline framing.","No article text is provided beyond the headline/source summary, so the magnitude, drivers, and specific measures of \u201celevated\u201d are unknown.","No timing/catalyst window is stated in the provided text.","Add at least one primary source confirmation before escalation.","Increase independent source coverage to reduce provenance risk."],"urgency":"medium","what_changed":"The day\u2019s intraday pattern described across outlets is that oil gave back earlier gains (or slipped) while stocks gained/rallied.","why_now":"The timing aligns with a fresh news cycle framing investor sentiment around a possible peace pathway; multiple sources report the same directional market behavior (oil down/slipping, stocks up/rising) in the same recent window.","window_end":"2026-04-15T00:00:00Z","window_start":"2026-04-13T00:00:00Z","world_state_thesis":"Markets are showing a mild risk-on tilt: oil prices eased while U.S. stocks rose, with reporting attributing the move to investor optimism about a potential path to peace."},"output_mrkdwn":"","ready_at":"2026-04-14T09:39:02.639672+00:00","status":"ready","summary":"The timing aligns with a fresh news cycle framing investor sentiment around a possible peace pathway; multiple sources report the same directional market behavior (oil down/slipping, stocks up/rising) in the same recent window.","title":"Markets are showing a mild risk-on tilt: oil prices eased while U.S. stocks rose, with reporting attributing the move to investor optimism about a potential path to peace.","updated_at":"2026-04-14T09:39:02.639672+00:00"}... |