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{"artifact_id":"art_intel_alert_isk_88 {"artifact_id":"art_intel_alert_isk_88e526ba422e97f0_20260414_0657","confidence":0.748,"created_at":"2026-04-14T07:38:59.788973+00:00","evidence_event_ids":["evt_54e394229971","evt_ec61f15b5910","evt_0bef5ea1206f","evt_c9901fffc6ef","evt_d3e767e1030d","evt_078cffeeeee4","evt_3cbe540b5663","evt_074df742dd1e","evt_663af20497e0","evt_a389324246d5","evt_5a6106e806d9","evt_f5267997295b"],"kind":"intel_alert","meta":{"alert_class":"developing","bucket":"2026-04-14T00:00","fingerprint":"{\"alert_class\": \"developing\", \"confidence\": 0.748, \"corroboration\": 0.781, \"story_id\": \"intel_572ff20fd3b0808e\", \"story_key\": \"isk_88e526ba422e97f04681\"}","independent_source_count":2,"primary_source_count":0,"provenance_score":0.613,"source":"intel_runtime","story_id":"intel_572ff20fd3b0808e","story_key":"isk_88e526ba422e97f04681","uncertainty_state":"open"},"output_json":{"alert_class":"developing","confidence":0.748,"continuity":{"current_quality_score":0.7428,"hours_since_last_seen":7.17,"last_confidence":0.56,"last_decision":"monitor","last_quality_score":0.7019,"last_seen_at":"2026-04-13T23:47:32+00:00","narrative_hint":"Escalating multi-day narrative.","prior_story_count_96h":6,"quality_delta":0.0409,"re_emerging":false,"state":"escalating","story_key":"isk_88e526ba422e97f04681","trajectory":[{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"Jim Cramer says this is the real reason why stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears - CNBC","observed_at":"2026-04-13T23:47:32+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"BlackRock raises view on U.S. stocks on belief that war is over, profits are up - CNBC","observed_at":"2026-04-13T23:28:12+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"BlackRock raises view on U.S. stocks on belief that war is over, profits are up - CNBC","observed_at":"2026-04-13T21:12:07+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"BlackRock raises view on U.S. stocks on belief that war is over, profits are up - CNBC","observed_at":"2026-04-13T18:09:16+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"BlackRock raises view on U.S. stocks on belief that war is over, profits are up - CNBC","observed_at":"2026-04-13T17:16:44+00:00"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"Why the stock market has stayed resilient despite the Iran war and software stock rout - CNBC","observed_at":"2026-04-13T13:15:22+00:00"}]},"contradiction":{"claim_type_breakdown":{"earnings_development":{"count":3,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":1},"geopolitical_event":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":1,"up":0},"macro_regime_development":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":0,"up":1},"market_news_development":{"count":7,"down":0,"neutral":6,"up":1},"news_development":{"count":15,"down":0,"neutral":12,"up":3}},"down_count":0,"flags":[],"has_conflict":false,"neutral_count":21,"up_count":6},"corroborated_summary":"CNBC-hosted items in the provided timeline describe (1) market resilience/limited impact from political moves, (2) Asia markets opening higher on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal, and (3) guidance to stick to quality/growth stocks in a volatile market. The overall corroboration metrics provided for this story are relatively strong (corroboration score ~0.78; high-precision pass true; no contradiction flags), but the evidence quality metric is moderate (~0.60), and the content is largely commentary/interpretation rather than a confirmed new geopolitical event.","corroboration":{"claim_agreement":0.8648,"claim_type_breakdown":{"earnings_development":{"count":3,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":1},"geopolitical_event":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":1,"up":0},"macro_regime_development":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":0,"up":1},"market_news_development":{"count":7,"down":0,"neutral":6,"up":1},"news_development":{"count":15,"down":0,"neutral":12,"up":3}},"claim_type_coverage":5,"contradiction_flags":[],"evidence_event_count":27,"evidence_quality":0.6004,"high_precision_pass":true,"independent_source_coverage":4,"score":0.7809,"signal_family_coverage":2},"decision":"alert","degraded":false,"degraded_reason":"","entity_key":"equity:CNBC","followup_status":"none","headline":"Jim Cramer says this is the real reason why stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears - CNBC","impact_score":0.581,"importance":{"band":"high","continuity_state":"escalating","family_breadth":0.5,"provenance_score":0.613,"reasons":["strong_corroboration","continuity_escalating"],"score":0.8453,"theme_prior":0.84,"trust_avg":0.8067},"information_gaps":["No article text is provided, so the specific president, timeframe, and which stock(s)/index(es) are referenced are not stated.","No details are given about what specific \u201cmoves\u201d the president made.","No evidence or metrics are provided to quantify \u201cvery limited\u201d impact.","No article text is provided, so the specific \u201creal reason\u201d Jim Cramer cited is unknown.","No tickers, sectors, or specific markets are mentioned in the provided text.","No indication is given whether the claim implies continuation or reversal beyond the general idea that stocks are shrugging off fears.","No specific banks, ticker symbols, dates, or earnings figures are provided in the headline/summary.","No directional market impact, guidance, or analyst conclusions are included in the provided text.","No article text is available beyond the headline and the repeated summary, limiting extraction to the existence of discussion rather than content details.","No specific market-moving event, company, index, commodity, or policy action is described.","No directional impact can be determined from the provided headline/summary alone.","No timing details beyond the date (April 13, 2026) are provided."],"latest_observed_at":"2026-04-14T06:57:40+00:00","named_entities":["Jim Cramer","CNBC","The president","Iran","CNBC \"Fast Money\"","CNBC Markets Now","Goldman","BofA's Poonawala","BlackRock","U.S. stocks","CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' team","Goldman Sachs"],"normalized_claims":[{"claim":"Stick to quality and growth stocks in a volatile market, says JPMorgan's Rajiv Batra CNBC","claim_type":"news_development","confidence":0.62,"direction":"up","fact_id":"8b66556abfd21cbc","source_domain":"cnbc.com"},{"claim":"Asia markets open higher amid hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal; China trade data in focus - 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CNBC","magnitude":0.5,"source":"CNBC","summary":"Asia markets open higher amid hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal; China trade data in focus - CNBC","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxNLUNOU0dzVklIcm5Dc0RaaXMxSGpyQ0tDM2Q1YzFGWkZyQ3VRNngyTlFONTdXSlByeHZpRFRmVHdBcVdqdW1CV2FJZGNhS2JxY2x3SUFrR0w1MjBvQ214VDRfWWltTEJsb0F3NVJQSEVNd29pVmZITXFQaEhPanppYUcxYmpSd21UQWtYc2FXY0dJNkJYc2Q0NVIzZGxINm04UUdTbjdrTdIBrAFBVV95cUxObjUwWEJzN3IwQi1xOFNYcEwzRWRaSFJwVTZEbXhLbzMwVHgzRG42WUZycE1hZjl1Tk9oRFU1MHdWUF9xZ3B3S1dHUXpDUVlLUFdva1ZRNjV6SklGMlh4ZWVuYlg1RzRkVTBIdzVjYk8yRUg4T1B0QkFBanBQWWNzSkpsUklsdkFSV09neFdnbjRMclk4LWJ6UlJLTURhQnUtYVJzNTZYQ0FlUmZF?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T23:28:12Z","claim":"The president's moves may be erratic but the impact on stocks has been very limited, says Jim Cramer CNBC","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"The president's moves may be erratic but the impact on stocks has been very limited, says Jim Cramer - CNBC","magnitude":0.45,"source":"CNBC","summary":"The president's moves may be erratic but the impact on stocks has been very limited, says Jim Cramer CNBC","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi2AFBVV95cUxQVkthakFROEVCQ2cwbXZjOWNZdTZiTmpEWWtBdDgyQ3V2N085RnFZUFdpYXlOcDN0OXg5NnNHbk1GbTdvaGM0bUpHNl9ibFVkSmcyNlg0Y3l6empCdWg2aklNYjBjUVR1WW1fM0otaU5LTGRCYnhwcU1UdGRqVHpsU0FoTzBPZWhqMllLaVlqQjRlSEtBUTFwRTl3UVAwMlNkWGIyb0lZZEtEYTB5WUlScDdDaWtWbmQyNVhVQUlDQ2xBeHFzRGpfNDRrVlhCdUhqNjBYR1BQQkU?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T23:28:12Z","claim":"Jim Cramer said the president\u2019s moves may be erratic but have had very limited impact on stocks.","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Jim Cramer said the president\u2019s moves may be erratic but have had very limited impact on stocks.","magnitude":0.493,"source":"CNBC","summary":"The president's moves may be erratic but the impact on stocks has been very limited, says Jim Cramer CNBC; Headline attributes a quote to Jim Cramer on CNBC.; Cramer characterizes the president\u2019s moves as potentially erratic.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T23:06:21Z","claim":"Jim Cramer says this is the real reason why stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears - CNBC","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Jim Cramer says this is the real reason why stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears - CNBC","magnitude":0.9,"source":"CNBC","summary":"Jim Cramer says this is the real reason why stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears - CNBC","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPSWhfWl9TelFpQTVuSEJVTGNMN0FNZ0lnZTYtWl9wc3M5SXZuM2k5T01NQzZRbkZPT3JCWi1BbnNqcXlHX3QxSk1NV0dKTjVURDk4SXItdjYxWTV0QjlHMzVHMjYtZm9FUUJLWXNzbUl6MXF6MUVYLU1pMmJzSkM1ZGRNckY4SjJabFVHatIBkgFBVV95cUxPdC1OY0tRZnR0bEI3SG1Wc0szX2J3VEQ5SFNNZklieGN6SmxiWWRYd3laUWNCMkNVQVZtZGwtREV2SGNYMWE2blJ6RTRRbXdYSDl1bUIwUElWWEZpbGpaY3FwcFdCeHdjUm5CZVhlbkNQSHRaSHB5UWhwX0pLZGZvalBOZ2NRUjlJLUNOdEszbFJFZw?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T23:06:21Z","claim":"Jim Cramer said there is a \u201creal reason\u201d stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Jim Cramer said there is a \u201creal reason\u201d stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears.","magnitude":0.68,"source":"CNBC","summary":"The CNBC headline reports that Jim Cramer attributed stocks\u2019 resilience to a specific \u201creal reason\u201d despite Iran war fears. No additional details or asset-specific information are provided in the supplied text.; Headline states Jim Cramer said there is a \u201creal reason\u201d stocks are shrugging off Iran war fears.; No article text or supporting details are included in the provided input.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T21:22:08Z","claim":"'Fast Money' traders talk what to expect from bank earnings this week CNBC","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"'Fast Money' traders talk what to expect from bank earnings this week - CNBC","magnitude":0.45,"source":"CNBC","summary":"'Fast Money' traders talk what to expect from bank earnings this week CNBC","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxQQXpSTVAxdnY3UGpoazVCaERNdGsxY0lERVlUN3ZncGEzYkZVV3d1eDZOLUtwaFJLZjRYNDNwSnNtTjd0NFd6R0ZZdDlhTjJHRDFVelE1UHlYbEVEbGhUWlBBRXpPUEV2M3RET0JpZlgyQ1RzT2JSdzdaRFhHNkh1U2FWOVE4UGwwSGROZHliLUZfVndjMF9rSEl3Y2VXb3NQd0xnQm9udFk3WG9DaktV?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T21:12:07Z","claim":"\u201cFast Money\u201d traders are talking about expectations for bank earnings this week on CNBC.","claim_type":"earnings_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"\u201cFast Money\u201d traders are talking about expectations for bank earnings this week on CNBC.","magnitude":0.493,"source":"CNBC","summary":"'Fast Money' traders talk what to expect from bank earnings this week CNBC; The headline indicates CNBC\u2019s \u201cFast Money\u201d traders are discussing what to expect from bank earnings this week.; The provided source summary repeats the same point.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-13T21:12:00Z","claim":"'Fast Money' traders talk what to expect from bank earnings this week CNBC","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"'Fast Money' traders talk what to expect from bank earnings this week - CNBC","magnitude":0.45,"source":"CNBC","summary":"'Fast Money' traders talk what to expect from bank earnings this week CNBC","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxQQXpSTVAxdnY3UGpoazVCaERNdGsxY0lERVlUN3ZncGEzYkZVV3d1eDZOLUtwaFJLZjRYNDNwSnNtTjd0NFd6R0ZZdDlhTjJHRDFVelE1UHlYbEVEbGhUWlBBRXpPUEV2M3RET0JpZlgyQ1RzT2JSdzdaRFhHNkh1U2FWOVE4UGwwSGROZHliLUZfVndjMF9rSEl3Y2VXb3NQd0xnQm9udFk3WG9DaktV?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-13T20:55:45Z","claim":"CNBC Markets Now is referenced for April 13, 2026.","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"CNBC Markets Now is referenced for April 13, 2026.","magnitude":0.376,"source":"CNBC","summary":"CNBC Markets Now: April 13, 2026 CNBC; Headline references \"CNBC Markets Now: April 13, 2026 - CNBC\".; No article body or specific market event details are included in the provided text.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.z46LtA-qfIg.L.X.O/am=GAIFAACAA2YBAwpA/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2PeUbKSDKfQ9Op-3wUE_8hlNgDpuA/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"}],"timing_hints":["this week","April 13, 2026","Monday"],"uncertainty_state":"open","unresolved_questions":["No article text is provided, so the specific president, timeframe, and which stock(s)/index(es) are referenced are not stated.","No details are given about what specific \u201cmoves\u201d the president made.","No evidence or metrics are provided to quantify \u201cvery limited\u201d impact.","No article text is provided, so the specific \u201creal reason\u201d Jim Cramer cited is unknown.","No tickers, sectors, or specific markets are mentioned in the provided text.","No indication is given whether the claim implies continuation or reversal beyond the general idea that stocks are shrugging off fears.","Add at least one primary source confirmation before escalation.","Increase independent source coverage to reduce provenance risk."],"urgency":"medium","what_changed":"The specific narrative emphasized by Jim Cramer (that there is a \u201creal reason\u201d stocks are shrugging off Iran-war fears) is being circulated alongside other market commentary about volatility and positioning; however, the provided timeline items do not indicate a new, discrete escalation/de-escalation in the Iran situation itself.","why_now":"The story is timely because it is framed as an explanation for current market behavior amid ongoing geopolitical headlines and concurrent market updates (e.g., Asia open moves tied to hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal and attention to China trade data).","window_end":"2026-04-15T00:00:00Z","window_start":"2026-04-12T00:00:00Z","world_state_thesis":"Market participants appear to be treating Iran-war risk as less immediately market-moving than other factors (e.g., stock selection/quality-growth positioning and broader volatility management), consistent with CNBC commentary that stocks are \u201cshrugging off\u201d Iran fears."},"output_mrkdwn":"","ready_at":"2026-04-14T07:38:59.788973+00:00","status":"ready","summary":"The story is timely because it is framed as an explanation for current market behavior amid ongoing geopolitical headlines and concurrent market updates (e.g., Asia open moves tied to hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal and attention to China trade data).","title":"Market participants appear to be treating Iran-war risk as less immediately market-moving than other factors (e.g., stock selection/quality-growth positioning and broader volatility management), consistent with CNBC commentary that stocks are \u201cshrugging off\u201d Iran fears.","updated_at":"2026-04-14T07:38:59.788973+00:00"}... |