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32565
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evt_bd009898713a
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artifact_upsert
|
2026-04-13T04:38:46.860697+00:00
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intel_digest
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[]
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{"artifact_id":"art_intel_2026-04-13&# {"artifact_id":"art_intel_2026-04-13","confidence":0.748,"created_at":"2026-04-13T04:38:46.860697+00:00","evidence_event_ids":["evt_50a989376ad2","evt_7dece5f9c622","evt_a4fd44e82372","evt_e8b3b18f52b3","evt_cd624ac7c580","evt_5b813f9019dc","evt_dd43aaeb2e2e","evt_d93ffa178ca8","evt_94c43ebe9ca7"],"kind":"intel_digest","meta":{"bucket":"2026-04-13","continuity_counts":{"developing":13,"escalating":7,"new":10,"persistent":10},"digest_story_count":1,"fingerprint":"[{\"confidence\":0.748,\"corroboration\":0.793,\"decision\":\"digest\",\"importance\":0.831,\"provenance\":0.704,\"story_id\":\"intel_f73c69c252e4eef3\",\"why_now\":\"The story is framed as a near-term market catalyst in the latest market wrap headlines (Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance), indicating investors are reacting immediately to the geopolitical escalation narrative rather than treating it as background risk.\"}]","lane_counts":{"alert":0,"digest":1,"monitor":39},"lookback_h":24,"model":"gpt-5.4-nano","narrative_clusters":1,"source":"intel_runtime","story_count":40,"tz":"America/New_York"},"output_json":{"all_stories":[{"confidence":0.748,"continuity":{"current_quality_score":0.7465,"hours_since_last_seen":21.02,"last_confidence":0.56,"last_decision":"monitor","last_quality_score":0.6257,"last_seen_at":"2026-04-12T04:38:57.099686Z","narrative_hint":"Escalating multi-day narrative.","prior_story_count_96h":3,"quality_delta":0.1208,"re_emerging":false,"state":"escalating","trajectory":[{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"US stocks climb to their best day since the Iran war began after oil prices ease - AOL.com","observed_at":"2026-04-12T04:38:57.099686Z"},{"confidence":0.46,"decision":"monitor","headline":"US close day with gains amid easing war concerns - Anadolu Ajans\u0131","observed_at":"2026-04-11T04:38:16.855162Z"},{"confidence":0.56,"decision":"monitor","headline":"The average US long-term mortgage rate eased to 6.37% after rising five weeks in a row.","observed_at":"2026-04-10T04:38:04.314911Z"}]},"contradiction":{"claim_type_breakdown":{"earnings_development":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":1,"up":0},"geopolitical_event":{"count":2,"down":0,"neutral":2,"up":0},"market_news_development":{"count":10,"down":4,"neutral":6,"up":0},"market_price_development":{"count":1,"down":1,"neutral":0,"up":0},"news_development":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":1,"up":0}},"down_count":5,"flags":[],"has_conflict":false,"neutral_count":10,"up_count":0},"corroborated_summary":"Across the provided sources list and timeline entries, coverage repeatedly ties (1) US-Iran failing to reach peace agreement and (2) US actions/plan to block Hormuz to contemporaneous market moves\u2014oil rising while US equity futures or stocks fall. 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markets.businessinsider.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Here's what smart people are saying about what the failed US-Iran peace talks and Trump's blockade mean for markets - markets.businessinsider.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"markets.businessinsider.com","summary":"Here's what smart people are saying about what the failed US-Iran peace talks and Trump's blockade mean for markets - markets.businessinsider.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxNMGJiamdOZnJrZlRtZE4wSkw5ZkFfX2tPXzFQTldKX3JhUnREZ25TalZjekZJcERibGZlQlBiVFFzWkpmajNwRHZrVGw4M2ZwTTNGQjVCWC1pMU1CRDhNOEZETmw4V01IZHN2R2w2X1Yta3hSZzlKWkgwSXlnVlZkTWJ6SktHWkxhcFhsbXZZTDdyb0lBRjJqTHJHTjRHNTE4WmhTNkV3b2pLdw?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T17:54:00Z","claim":"Markets commentary is focused on US-Iran failed peace talks.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Markets commentary is focused on US-Iran failed peace talks.","magnitude":0.68,"source":"markets.businessinsider.com","summary":"The headline indicates that commentary about US-Iran failed peace talks is being discussed in relation to markets. No specific market, asset, or quantitative claims are provided in the available text.; The provided headline references \u201cUS-Iran failed peace talks.\u201d; The provided headline indicates the content is about what \u201csmart people are saying\u201d and links it to markets (markets.businessinsider.com).","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T17:54:00Z","claim":"Here's what smart people are saying about US-Iran failed peace talks - markets.businessinsider.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Here's what smart people are saying about US-Iran failed peace talks - markets.businessinsider.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"markets.businessinsider.com","summary":"Here's what smart people are saying about US-Iran failed peace talks - 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Record turnout as close of polls nears in Hungary's most consequential election in decades Euronews.com Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins. The New York Times After 16 years in power, Putin's closest friend in Europe faces a pivotal election NBC News","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Fraud accusations fly as Hungarians vote in contentious election - politico.eu","magnitude":0.45,"source":"politico.eu","summary":"Fraud accusations fly as Hungarians vote in contentious election politico.eu Hungary election live: Viktor Orb\u00e1n's Fidesz faces challenge from opposition P\u00e9ter Magyar\u2019s Tisza Reuters Live. Record turnout as close of polls nears in Hungary's most consequential election in decades Euronews.com Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins. 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CNN Opinion | Hungarians Oust Viktor Orb\u00e1n WSJ Trump ally Orb\u00e1n sees government fall despite Vance visit The Hill","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNRHhIMFhEZ0ZiTWNFV0JpMTZYUXhMNURxVVp2b1dnZEg0RlZQaE9GNDYwX3RWRXFSRTBBWFRUaF85TkF5eFlhSk8wSm5XNE93UzB6dlNveG5PMVVZWTROZ0ViaVNrd3VGU2pNNUVvLXJ3SUs4NmFwOTRHQWlBWHgzU2IyZExFNU1Ub3VZMw?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T18:05:25Z","claim":"Iran War Live Updates: Trump Says U.S. Will \u2018Blockade\u2019 Strait of Hormuz After Peace Talks Fail The New York Times Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading CNN Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail CNBC Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks end without agreement AP News Trump: Fine, We\u2019ll Blockade the Strait Too Mother Jones","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Iran War Live Updates: Trump Says U.S. Will \u2018Blockade\u2019 Strait of Hormuz After Peace Talks Fail - The New York Times","magnitude":0.9,"source":"The New York Times","summary":"Iran War Live Updates: Trump Says U.S. Will \u2018Blockade\u2019 Strait of Hormuz After Peace Talks Fail The New York Times Why Trump is threatening to blockade a strait that Iran is already blockading CNN Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail CNBC Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks end without agreement AP News Trump: Fine, We\u2019ll Blockade the Strait...","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNMWhVRWk3TXBnaURHTzJQbWUxTVlFME5NMmRpZVRrRFEtc3puYnNiZUdqSWhLYW1tVzVQSzlLQUwwZkk5VWY2bHJWaU9PQXJINF93VmlBQ3RUSlNSZDZDYnVMSmdYTGVIVHF0SXZaME9oS1NXU0lfY0ZTMWNRbzNjRg?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T16:00:51Z","claim":"Hungarian election tests Trump\u2019s global reach as Orban fights for survival The Washington Post Live updates: Voting ends in Hungarian election after 16 years under Viktor Orb\u00e1n CNN Hungary: Polls show center-right Tisza leading over Orban\u2019s party as voting ends The Times of Israel Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins. The New York Times Hungary election live: Orb\u00e1n's Fidesz faces challenge from opposition Magyar\u2019s Tisza Reuters","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Hungarian election tests Trump\u2019s global reach as Orban fights for survival - The Washington Post","magnitude":0.45,"source":"The Washington Post","summary":"Hungarian election tests Trump\u2019s global reach as Orban fights for survival The Washington Post Live updates: Voting ends in Hungarian election after 16 years under Viktor Orb\u00e1n CNN Hungary: Polls show center-right Tisza leading over Orban\u2019s party as voting ends The Times of Israel Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins. 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The New York Times After 16 years in power, Putin's closest friend in Europe faces a pivotal election NBC News","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Fraud accusations fly as Hungarians vote in contentious election - politico.eu","magnitude":0.45,"source":"politico.eu","summary":"Fraud accusations fly as Hungarians vote in contentious election politico.eu Live updates: Hungary election, Viktor Orban and Peter Magyar in close race in crucial European election CNN Hungary's opposition Tisza party leads last Median poll done before Sunday election Reuters Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins. 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Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal. The New York Times Iranians left disappointed but defiant after failure of peace talks with US AP News Iran Says No More Talks Are Planned With U.S. but Diplomacy Will Continue WSJ ROBERT MAGINNIS: Why Islamabad talks were always doomed to fail Fox News","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran\u2019s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say - CNN","magnitude":0.9,"source":"CNN","summary":"Deadlock on Strait of Hormuz and Iran\u2019s nuclear stockpile led to impasse, officials say CNN What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal. 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No article details are provided in the signal.; Headline is from AOL.com.; Topic is Bitcoin price prediction for April.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T13:40:05Z","claim":"Bitcoin is down 42% and is losing steam, with implications for the next 2 years.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"down","family":"market_news","headline":"Bitcoin is down 42% and is losing steam, with implications for the next 2 years.","magnitude":0.7036,"source":"AOL.com","summary":"The headline claims Bitcoin is down 42% and \u201closing steam,\u201d and suggests a forward-looking view of what the next two years could look like.; Headline states Bitcoin is down 42%.; Headline states Bitcoin is \u201closing steam.\u201d","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T13:35:00Z","claim":"Bitcoin trades about 42% below its October all-time record price (as of April 8) and the next halving is set for March 2028, which the article says historically coincides with higher prices than the prior halving\u2019s level.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"discovery","headline":"Bitcoin trades about 42% below its October all-time record price (as of April 8) and the next halving is set for March 2028, which the article says historically coincides with higher prices than the prior halving\u2019s level.","magnitude":0.649,"source":"Nasdaq Markets","summary":"Key PointsBitcoin's halving events, which occur roughly every four years, provide investors with a guide of what could happen next.; Bitcoin hit an all-time record price of around $126,000 in October last year.; As of April 8, Bitcoin trades about 42% below that peak.","url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/12/bitcoin-down-losing-steam-what-next-2-years-bring/"},{"at":"2026-04-12T13:35:00Z","claim":"Bitcoin is down 42% and is losing steam, and the next 2 years could realistically look a certain way (details not provided).","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"down","family":"market_news","headline":"Bitcoin is down 42% and is losing steam, and the next 2 years could realistically look a certain way (details not provided).","magnitude":0.7036,"source":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The Yahoo Finance headline claims Bitcoin is down 42% and \u201closing steam,\u201d and suggests the next two years could be characterized by a realistic outlook. 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Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal. The New York Times Inconclusive talks in Islamabad leave doubts about U.S.-Iran ceasefire The Washington Post Iran Says No More Talks Are Planned With U.S. but Diplomacy Will Continue WSJ US-Iran peace talks end without a deal as delegations leave Pakistan Reuters","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"Direct U.S.-Iran talks fail to reach resolution after lengthy negotiation - The Washington Post","magnitude":0.45,"source":"The Washington Post","summary":"Direct U.S.-Iran talks fail to reach resolution after lengthy negotiation The Washington Post What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal. 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But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins. The New York Times Hungarians 'write history' in election that Tisza will win, opposition leader says Reuters Trump\u2019s closest ally in Europe faces toughest test yet as Hungary votes. Here\u2019s what to know CNN Hungarians vote in landmark election closely watched by EU, Russia, U.S. CNBC","claim_type":"news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"news","headline":"How Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s hometown became a symbol of excesses - NPR","magnitude":0.45,"source":"NPR","summary":"How Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s hometown became a symbol of excesses NPR Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins. The New York Times Hungarians 'write history' in election that Tisza will win, opposition leader says Reuters Trump\u2019s closest ally in Europe faces toughest test yet as Hungary votes. 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No specific market, sector, or ticker details are provided in the available text.; Headline asks whether Trump could ignite a stock market rally by suspending tariffs.; No article content, data, or specific assets/tickers are included in the provided text.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T09:06:47Z","claim":"The headline suggests a possibility that suspending tariffs could trigger a stock market rally under Trump.","claim_type":"macro_regime_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"The headline suggests a possibility that suspending tariffs could trigger a stock market rally under Trump.","magnitude":0.571,"source":"The Globe and Mail","summary":"The Globe and Mail headline asks whether suspending tariffs under Trump could ignite a stock market rally. No specific stocks, tickers, or tariff details are provided in the available text.; Headline asks whether Trump could ignite a stock market rally by suspending tariffs.; No article text, tariff specifics, or affected assets/tickers are included in the provided material.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T08:48:51Z","claim":"The Motley Fool headline suggests that suspending tariffs (under Trump) could potentially spark a stock market rally.","claim_type":"macro_regime_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"The Motley Fool headline suggests that suspending tariffs (under Trump) could potentially spark a stock market rally.","magnitude":0.493,"source":"The Motley Fool","summary":"The headline asks whether suspending tariffs could help Donald Trump ignite a stock market rally. No specific stocks, numbers, or policy details are provided in the available text.; Headline is titled: \"Could Trump Ignite a Stock Market Rally by Suspending Tariffs? - The Motley Fool\".; The only actionable policy concept mentioned is \"suspending tariffs.\"","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T07:50:00Z","claim":"The Fed Chair warned that stock valuations are high, echoing a caution from 1996.","claim_type":"macro_regime_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"The Fed Chair warned that stock valuations are high, echoing a caution from 1996.","magnitude":0.571,"source":"IndexBox","summary":"The headline claims that the Fed Chair warned about high stock valuations, drawing a parallel to a 1996 caution. 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Traders are closely watching for confirmation of another major purchase cycle. Key Takeaways: Strategy signals expansion as Michael Saylor hints at new buying tied to 766,970 BTC holdings. 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Key Takeaways: ARIA hit a $0.95 high on April 12, gaining 30% [\u2026]; ARIA reached a new all-time high of $0.95 on April 12, 2026.; ARIA fell to a low of $0.11 on April 9, 2026, described...","corroboration":{"claim_agreement":1.0,"claim_type_breakdown":{"market_price_development":{"count":1,"down":0,"neutral":1,"up":0}},"claim_type_coverage":1,"contradiction_flags":[],"evidence_event_count":1,"evidence_quality":0.78,"high_precision_pass":false,"independent_source_coverage":1,"score":0.5381,"signal_family_coverage":1},"decision":"monitor","degraded":true,"degraded_reason":"llm_unavailable_or_invalid_verdict","entity_key":"equity:ARIA","impact_score":0.5581,"importance":{"band":"low","continuity_state":"new","family_breadth":0.25,"provenance_score":0.436,"reasons":[],"score":0.5824,"theme_prior":0.84,"trust_avg":0.58},"information_gaps":["The article does not provide the exact time window for the 'over 80% within a 24-hour window' claim beyond stating it occurred within 24 hours.","The article does not specify the exact methodology or data source for the 55% volatility, 18% circulating supply, or the market cap figure.","The article does not state whether ARIA\u2019s $0.95 level was intraday or closing price (it says 'peaked just above $0.95').","The article does not include details of any subsequent audit findings or whether Sentinacle\u2019s warnings were resolved.","The article does not quantify the 'outperformed FET and AGIX' comparison (no percentages or time horizon provided)."],"latest_observed_at":"2026-04-12T18:02:01+00:00","named_entities":["Aria","Sentinacle","FET","AGIX"],"normalized_claims":[{"claim":"ARIA hit a new all-time high of $0.95 on April 12, 2026 after falling to $0.11 on April 9.","claim_type":"market_price_development","confidence":0.78,"direction":"neutral","fact_id":"430afccb93ca45f0","source_domain":"news.bitcoin.com"}],"personal_relevance":{"applied":true,"boost":0.008,"matched_assets":[],"matched_keywords":[],"score":0.1,"why_you":"No strong personal linkage detected."},"priority_score":0.5725,"quality_flags":["degraded_reasoning_mode"],"recency_score":0.68,"recommended_checks":["Validate the primary claim against at least one primary source.","Confirm the same claim type across another independent source family.","Check timing context and unresolved uncertainty before escalation."],"risk_counterfactuals":["If independent sources diverge on the core claim, downgrade to monitor.","If no follow-on confirmation appears in the next cycle, treat this as transient noise."],"signal_families":["discovery"],"source_domains":["news.bitcoin.com"],"source_refs":[{"domain":"news.bitcoin.com","event_id":"evt_e1efb88bb5ce","family":"discovery","headline":"ARIA hit a new all-time high of $0.95 on April 12, 2026 after falling to $0.11 on April 9.","observed_at":"2026-04-12T18:02:01+00:00","signal_id":"sig_14d58300ae02","signal_type":"discovery_crypto_extremes_delta","source":"Bitcoin.com News","url":"https://news.bitcoin.com/aria-token-rebounds-from-80-crash-to-hit-new-all-time-high-of-0-95/"}],"source_trust":{"avg_score":0.58,"domains":[{"count":1,"domain":"news.bitcoin.com","primary":false,"score":0.58,"source":"Bitcoin.com News","url_count":1}],"flags":["missing_primary_sources","thin_independent_coverage"],"high_trust_source_count":0,"independent_source_count":1,"low_trust_source_count":0,"primary_source_count":0,"provenance_score":0.436,"refs_total":1,"url_ratio":1.0},"story_id":"intel_997512f06f3063d9","theme_key":"markets","timeline":[{"at":"2026-04-12T18:02:01Z","claim":"ARIA hit a new all-time high of $0.95 on April 12, 2026 after falling to $0.11 on April 9.","claim_type":"market_price_development","direction":"neutral","family":"discovery","headline":"ARIA hit a new all-time high of $0.95 on April 12, 2026 after falling to $0.11 on April 9.","magnitude":0.8284,"source":"Bitcoin.com News","summary":"The gaming platform utility token, aria (ARIA), staged a dramatic recovery to reach a new all-time high of $0.95 on April 12, 2026. 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Bloomberg.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"down","family":"market_news","headline":"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop on US Plan to Block Hormuz: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Bloomberg.com","summary":"Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop on US Plan to Block Hormuz: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNR3NJMkxuWXdWcjMxOXZjLVJsQWNlcWQxTG1rNTlCdloyVzM2MVNTNXA2TEFqVHRJdXVadm1BQnRrcV9yUkdYd3BqdzQzRnFiTkdvcjhleTZPS19YalRRTGQwWFp4NE9CSmNpTEgwOEZreS05Q3BRQUVFUXIxdUc0TUJ6dnJZOXdpR2pJTk40cFRoT245VFo0emdiOGEtQlhoVWxPckRhSTBEOEk0dVE?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T23:29:22Z","claim":"Oil Surges, US Futures Drop on Hormuz Blockade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Oil Surges, US Futures Drop on Hormuz Blockade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Bloomberg.com","summary":"Oil Surges, US Futures Drop on Hormuz Blockade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNR3NJMkxuWXdWcjMxOXZjLVJsQWNlcWQxTG1rNTlCdloyVzM2MVNTNXA2TEFqVHRJdXVadm1BQnRrcV9yUkdYd3BqdzQzRnFiTkdvcjhleTZPS19YalRRTGQwWFp4NE9CSmNpTEgwOEZreS05Q3BRQUVFUXIxdUc0TUJ6dnJZOXdpR2pJTk40cFRoT245VFo0emdiOGEtQlhoVWxPckRhSTBEOEk0dVE?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T22:51:51Z","claim":"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as the US and Iran fail to agree to peace, US blockades Hormuz - Yahoo Finance Singapore","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"down","family":"market_news","headline":"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as the US and Iran fail to agree to peace, US blockades Hormuz - Yahoo Finance Singapore","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Yahoo Finance Singapore","summary":"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as the US and Iran fail to agree to peace, US blockades Hormuz - Yahoo Finance Singapore","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi8gFBVV95cUxPS1praGNGQ3l2MUpFOFVpYnJ0WmcwU2ozcUphbGZTSTVhYlcyd3NJMGZGRXc2TlZMNFpsTmVocEUyYkowNl9lRHo0NDRhUUsxdkluTGdPRHVZUWJDQkh3QVNPYXdmSDFtMkJUSHAzMFVJRm1GQnJMMzc3SXE4NzY1SnN2d0xDM2tDcG1IVzVQNGYxUGl1ZlAtMV82RHY5NGpxNk9sWnNGclBaS3lkVTJKUWR5VTZMVzZXbTY0YnZ0ZW5YSGhoNjg4Q29KMnVpNFd5dlVkTjZpTzVTYm91Z2g5UzFKUzBmUDVlTmF4eFdvb2FzQQ?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T22:51:51Z","claim":"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as the US and Iran fail to agree to peace, US blockades Hormuz - Yahoo Finance","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"down","family":"market_news","headline":"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as the US and Iran fail to agree to peace, US blockades Hormuz - Yahoo Finance","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as the US and Iran fail to agree to peace, US blockades Hormuz - Yahoo Finance","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi9AFBVV95cUxNaEdkMjFDVGtQWmpwYVFXWVk4YW9NRVVqRHdnaUk4Mkc5TmtObXZTeHBENW41dU1IUnE4UEJObDJick5oem5YRTc1THNRdlZ4aHFmMEtIM3lDSGMtUEhJaDRCcDZmNmhjNDlrNzRFSnNUUl9Zekg0TFd3S1JvY25GdzFfOEVRWkNlbks4OTNqclV2eG1BbmhCQzJZTGZRdzYweWdTaXZmcEM3UF8weEFLNXUxZy1kYVRWMWEzZExlWVdWV20xcWlDSXJ0ZFA2NnRmRS1YNlZtM3NuTVdEeW10MGJwR1hpLTB5RDdoNEpqY0xocWhS?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T22:08:38Z","claim":"Oil Surges, US Futures Drop on Hormuz Blockade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Oil Surges, US Futures Drop on Hormuz Blockade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"Bloomberg.com","summary":"Oil Surges, US Futures Drop on Hormuz Blockade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNR3NJMkxuWXdWcjMxOXZjLVJsQWNlcWQxTG1rNTlCdloyVzM2MVNTNXA2TEFqVHRJdXVadm1BQnRrcV9yUkdYd3BqdzQzRnFiTkdvcjhleTZPS19YalRRTGQwWFp4NE9CSmNpTEgwOEZreS05Q3BRQUVFUXIxdUc0TUJ6dnJZOXdpR2pJTk40cFRoT245VFo0emdiOGEtQlhoVWxPckRhSTBEOEk0dVE?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T19:30:00Z","claim":"How Bad Will Market Sentiment Get as US-Iran Peace Talks Fall Apart? - stonex.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"down","family":"market_news","headline":"How Bad Will Market Sentiment Get as US-Iran Peace Talks Fall Apart? - stonex.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"stonex.com","summary":"How Bad Will Market Sentiment Get as US-Iran Peace Talks Fall Apart? - stonex.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxNM0Ixb3lqYjBOY1dZREFxQzdxb19YTS1rS2ZOUmdtRE5ieTVzTTJOa3JMaHBpcUFodnBTV090OXU1SkJSQ3JhMC1kNmZpem1wdWRnNHA0VWZEOXgya0UxNVZCZy1zbzlsbmk0UGtrd1E0cjFSRjlXclJPOFFETnNINEw1REExa0cwcVlzZFNDdk9EZjVwVkRnS0JpNmNNOHUxaXl0OWNn?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T19:30:00Z","claim":"US-Iran peace talks falling apart could worsen market sentiment.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"US-Iran peace talks falling apart could worsen market sentiment.","magnitude":0.68,"source":"stonex.com","summary":"The headline suggests market sentiment may deteriorate if US-Iran peace talks fail.; Headline asks how bad market sentiment will get as US-Iran peace talks fall apart.","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T17:54:00Z","claim":"Here's what smart people are saying about what the failed US-Iran peace talks and Trump's blockade mean for markets - markets.businessinsider.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Here's what smart people are saying about what the failed US-Iran peace talks and Trump's blockade mean for markets - markets.businessinsider.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"markets.businessinsider.com","summary":"Here's what smart people are saying about what the failed US-Iran peace talks and Trump's blockade mean for markets - markets.businessinsider.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxNMGJiamdOZnJrZlRtZE4wSkw5ZkFfX2tPXzFQTldKX3JhUnREZ25TalZjekZJcERibGZlQlBiVFFzWkpmajNwRHZrVGw4M2ZwTTNGQjVCWC1pMU1CRDhNOEZETmw4V01IZHN2R2w2X1Yta3hSZzlKWkgwSXlnVlZkTWJ6SktHWkxhcFhsbXZZTDdyb0lBRjJqTHJHTjRHNTE4WmhTNkV3b2pLdw?oc=5"},{"at":"2026-04-12T17:54:00Z","claim":"Markets commentary is focused on US-Iran failed peace talks.","claim_type":"geopolitical_event","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Markets commentary is focused on US-Iran failed peace talks.","magnitude":0.68,"source":"markets.businessinsider.com","summary":"The headline indicates that commentary about US-Iran failed peace talks is being discussed in relation to markets. No specific market, asset, or quantitative claims are provided in the available text.; The provided headline references \u201cUS-Iran failed peace talks.\u201d; The provided headline indicates the content is about what \u201csmart people are saying\u201d and links it to markets (markets.businessinsider.com).","url":"https://www.gstatic.com/_/mss/boq-dots/_/ss/k=boq-dots.DotsSplashUi_desktop_ms.OYgPNdDf9Nc.L.X.O/am=GAIFAAAADpgFDCgAAQ/d=1/ed=1/rs=ALs0n2OYSmDAUDetpsORI83j3dpsv55GJQ/m=syndicationarticleview,_b,_tp"},{"at":"2026-04-12T17:54:00Z","claim":"Here's what smart people are saying about US-Iran failed peace talks - markets.businessinsider.com","claim_type":"market_news_development","direction":"neutral","family":"market_news","headline":"Here's what smart people are saying about US-Iran failed peace talks - markets.businessinsider.com","magnitude":0.5,"source":"markets.businessinsider.com","summary":"Here's what smart people are saying about US-Iran failed peace talks - markets.businessinsider.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxNMGJiamdOZnJrZlRtZE4wSkw5ZkFfX2tPXzFQTldKX3JhUnREZ25TalZjekZJcERibGZlQlBiVFFzWkpmajNwRHZrVGw4M2ZwTTNGQjVCWC1pMU1CRDhNOEZETmw4V01IZHN2R2w2X1Yta3hSZzlKWkgwSXlnVlZkTWJ6SktHWkxhcFhsbXZZTDdyb0lBRjJqTHJHTjRHNTE4WmhTNkV3b2pLdw?oc=5"}],"timing_hints":[],"urgency":"medium","what_changed":"The incremental change reflected in the provided timeline is continued market reaction coverage: multiple \u201cMarkets Wrap\u201d items attribute oil strength and/or equity weakness to the US plan to block Hormuz and to the US-Iran failure to agree on peace.","why_now":"The story is framed as a near-term market catalyst in the latest market wrap headlines (Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance), indicating investors are reacting immediately to the geopolitical escalation narrative rather than treating it as background risk.","window_end":"2026-04-14T00:00:00Z","window_start":"2026-04-12T00:00:00Z","world_state_thesis":"US-Iran peace talks are reported to have failed, and market coverage links the development to risk-off moves (notably around oil and US equity futures) tied to Hormuz-related blockade concerns."}]},"output_mrkdwn":"*Intel Digest* - 2026-04-13\n\n*1) US-Iran peace talks are reported to have failed, and market coverage links the development to risk-off moves (notably around oil and US equity futures) tied to Hormuz-related blockade concerns.*\n- Lane: `digest` | conf=0.75 | corr=0.79 | imp=0.83\n- Continuity: escalating\n- What changed: The incremental change reflected in the provided timeline is continued market reaction coverage: multiple \u201cMarkets Wrap\u201d items attribute oil strength and/or equity weakness to the US plan to block Hormuz and to the US-Iran failure to agree on peace.\n- Why now: The story is framed as a near-term market catalyst in the latest market wrap headlines (Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance), indicating investors are reacting immediately to the geopolitical escalation narrative rather than treating it as background risk.\n- Sources: <https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuwFBVV95cUxNdlZ5X19tUWI2blRNMGlsdjczRTE4RlZzNWZNNGpYc1ZpTU4tdlVDNTN1Szh0enJreDZ0Z2JpTklhWndPeWY4ODhTbU5qUE1ZeWxQWVh1VzYySG1OcFVUOE15UjdRbk1MUE9GT3Y1aGFGb0RoNmRkd2NOa0hnWHNjalczVWRIQWxZN01mZXRiVmRFYTczb3hwY2p5c3JJQUJjNlVmMk0zNGJtbkd3VXNGVmppMTF4U1pLMUxv?oc=5|Gulf stocks slide as US-Iran talks falter, ceasefire doubts resurface - Reuters> (reuters.com); <https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNR3NJMkxuWXdWcjMxOXZjLVJsQWNlcWQxTG1rNTlCdloyVzM2MVNTNXA2TEFqVHRJdXVadm1BQnRrcV9yUkdYd3BqdzQzRnFiTkdvcjhleTZPS19YalRRTGQwWFp4NE9CSmNpTEgwOEZreS05Q3BRQUVFUXIxdUc0TUJ6dnJZOXdpR2pJTk40cFRoT245VFo0emdiOGEtQlhoVWxPckRhSTBEOEk0dVE?oc=5|Oil Jumps, Stocks Drop on US Plan to Block Hormuz: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com> (bloomberg.com); <https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxNR3NJMkxuWXdWcjMxOXZjLVJsQWNlcWQxTG1rNTlCdloyVzM2MVNTNXA2TEFqVHRJdXVadm1BQnRrcV9yUkdYd3BqdzQzRnFiTkdvcjhleTZPS19YalRRTGQwWFp4NE9CSmNpTEgwOEZreS05Q3BRQUVFUXIxdUc0TUJ6dnJZOXdpR2pJTk40cFRoT245VFo0emdiOGEtQlhoVWxPckRhSTBEOEk0dVE?oc=5|Oil Surges, US Futures Drop on Hormuz Blockade: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg.com> (bloomberg.com)","ready_at":"2026-04-13T04:38:46.860697+00:00","status":"ready","summary":"US-Iran peace talks are reported to have failed, and market coverage links the development to risk-off moves (notably around oil and US equity futures) tied to Hormuz-related blockade concerns.","title":"Intel Digest 2026-04-13","updated_at":"2026-04-13T04:38:46.860697+00:00"}...
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0.78
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intel_digest:2026-04-13
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2026-04-13T04:38:52.240539+00:00
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